The Arctic has shifted from a remote curiosity to an indispensable hub for energy, trade, and global security
This piece is part of the series 'Governing the Oceans: Rethinking Access and Equity'
For a long time, the global perception of the Arctic was shaped by a handful of tropes. It was that distant, vast, and cold land where only the most daring explorers ventured, or perhaps a high-definition spectacle seen on the Discovery Channel. For many, it was akin to a small glass snowball—something you could shake to watch the snow drizzle down, safe and contained. But that glass has shattered. The High North has moved from a remote curiosity to being top of mind for policymakers in Washington, Seoul, and New Delhi. The discussion is no longer about a gradual shift, but about witnessing a “rupture” in the global order, as Mark Carney argued at the World Economic Forum Annual Meeting 2026 in Davos.
As nations look to secure their futures in energy, critical minerals, and finance, they find that the Arctic is not a museum but a powerhouse that holds the very resources Carney highlighted as essential for national resilience.
The fragility of global maritime architecture has never been more exposed. Geopolitical tremors in the Strait of Hormuz send immediate shockwaves through markets, reminding us of the terrifying vulnerability of traditional maritime chokepoints. The same panic was evident when climate change disrupted the Panama Canal, and when a single vessel, the Ever Given, paralysed the Suez Canal. The Arctic is not immune to these constraints. The Bering Strait is a critical artery currently facing shifting traffic trends and unusual ice barriers, while the Greenland–Iceland–United Kingdom (GIUK) Gap remains a fundamental strategic threshold. This is precisely why the Arctic is the geographic answer to the quest for strategic autonomy as described by Mark Carney at Davos. As nations look to secure their futures in energy, critical minerals, and finance, they find that the Arctic is not a museum but a powerhouse that holds the very resources Carney highlighted as essential for national resilience.
Arctic shipping is a tradition that predates the modern state. A thousand years ago, the Vikings were already globalising the North, trading dried cod from Northern Norway to Germany and selling walrus and narwhal tusks to European royals. Even the Global South has a historical connection to this region. Over a century ago, the Indian philosopher Bal Gangadhar Tilak posited in The Arctic Home in the Vedas that the North was the ancestral home of the Indo-Aryans. This historical link still resonates today as India and other non-Arctic states expand their northern presence.
When looking at the future of Arctic navigation, a pragmatic assessment of the routes remains essential. The Transpolar Route is a long-term prospect, entirely dependent on how climate change evolves and, crucially, on policy decisions regarding the establishment of necessary Search and Rescue (SAR) infrastructure. The Northwest Passage presents an even more complex challenge. Ironically, climate change may make it more difficult to navigate in the near term, as melting ice creates new chokepoints and introduces unpredictable ice floes into previously clear channels. Meanwhile, the Northern Sea Route remains a Russian prestige project, though few other nations operate there today due to political barriers and seasonal challenges.
The world’s need for the North is multi-faceted. The region is a vital seafood exporter, providing food security for millions across the globe. It is also a massive energy exporter, with Alaska, Norway and Russia all serving as critical suppliers of the hydrocarbons that currently fuel the global economy. The region is also poised to lead in hydrogen production. Finally, there is the burgeoning critical raw materials sector. The minerals required for the green transition—31 of the 34 critical raw materials identified by the EU—are abundant in the North, but they require the development of maritime corridors to reach processing facilities elsewhere. In addition to these economic drivers, the rise of Arctic tourism and significant military build-up are set to fundamentally change the region’s landscape.
The pivot to the North is not yet fully funded, but the momentum is shifting. Countries like South Korea are investing increasingly in Arctic shipping ambitions, committing over US$ 400 million to the cause.
It is important to emphasise that Arctic shipping remains largely a prospect. Contrary to popular belief, there has not been a massive, uniform increase in ships across the Arctic. Instead, the data is being driven by a few mega-projects with a disproportionate impact on traffic figures. For example, the US$ 3 billion Mary River Mine railway project in Nunavut, which links the mine to Steensby Port, represents the kind of singular, massive investment that shifts regional shipping statistics.
Bridging the infrastructure divide in the North requires a new investment approach. Local communities must not be expected to bear the financial burden of global demand alone. While attracting Foreign Direct Investment is part of the solution, priority must also be given to dual-use investments that serve both commercial and security needs, such as deep-sea ports, railroads, SAR capabilities, and satellite monitoring.
This development is inextricably linked to the people of the North. The Arctic is home to four million people, 10 percent of whom are Indigenous. Going forward, efforts must focus on collaborating with these communities while simultaneously attracting new talent to the region. However, the Arctic is not for the uninitiated. It takes unique, specialised skill sets to navigate and operate in these conditions, and building that workforce is a generational challenge. Therefore, it is also important to ensure that updates to the Polar Code are undertaken effectively, with global support and the involvement of Arctic experts.
The pivot to the North is not yet fully funded, but the momentum is shifting. Countries like South Korea are investing increasingly in Arctic shipping ambitions, committing over US$ 400 million to the cause. In this future landscape, the Port of Busan is set to play a key role, supported by the ever-present research of the Korea Maritime Institute (KMI). On the Atlantic side, the ICE Pact—a collaboration between Canada, Finland and the US—is working to build the next generation of icebreakers, with the Canadian company Davie playing a critical role in providing the capacity required to maintain sovereignty and safety.
The Arctic can be viewed as a region of regional chokepoints, but it also has the potential to be a global gateway.
Meaningful participation of local communities is exemplified by organisations like Makivvik, which are directly involved in shipping and ensure that the blue economy benefits those who live in the region. At the same time, continued vigilance remains essential against risks such as the “shadow fleet”—vessels that ‘go dark’ to circumvent sanctions—and to develop a better understanding of all activities in Arctic waters. As the Polar Code is updated to match an uncertain future, it is vital to work with the people of the region to ensure governance is effective and equitable.
The Arctic can be viewed as a region of regional chokepoints, but it also has the potential to be a global gateway. Realising that potential requires deep international collaboration, whether from India, South Korea, the UAE or the eight Arctic states. Shipping is, by its very nature, a global endeavour, and the future of the Arctic will be written by those who recognise the High North not as a distant snowball, but as a central pillar of a shared maritime future.
Mads Qvist Frederiksen is Executive Director of the Arctic Economic Council.
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Mads Qvist Frederiksen is the Executive director of the Arctic Economic Council (AEC) that is located in Tromsø, Norway. The AEC is a pan-arctic independent ...
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