The blue economy’s future depends on resilient, inclusive and sustainable policies that balance growth with ocean health
In recent years, economic activity in the ocean has expanded rapidly, prompting many countries to view the ocean economy as a new engine of growth. Industries operating in or reliant on ocean and coastal resources, ranging from shipping and fisheries to offshore energy and tourism, have grown significantly in both scale and scope. Over 25 years, the global ocean economy doubled in size in real terms, increasing from US$ 1.3 trillion in gross value added (GVA) in 1995 to US$ 2.6 trillion in 2020. If considered a country, it would have ranked as the world’s fifth-largest economy. Growth has been particularly strong in offshore wind energy, marine aquaculture, port activities and coastal tourism; approximately 75 percent of this expansion occurred in Asia and the Pacific, especially China.
Geopolitical tensions, including the ongoing crisis in the Middle East, have highlighted risks linked to maritime chokepoints and energy security.
However, this rapid expansion has also exposed significant vulnerabilities and challenges. Strengthening the resilience of the ocean economy is now an urgent priority. Like the broader global economy, ocean-based sectors are increasingly exposed to shocks and disruptions. The COVID-19 pandemic brought many activities, particularly tourism and maritime transport, to a standstill, revealing the fragility of ocean-based value chains. More recently, geopolitical tensions, including the ongoing crisis in the Middle East, have highlighted risks linked to maritime chokepoints and energy security. These disruptions have had far-reaching consequences, especially for Asian economies. Around 80 percent of oil and 86 per cent of liquefied natural gas (LNG) passing through the Strait of Hormuz were destined for Asia. Such disruptions underline the need for more robust and diversified ocean economies.
A second key challenge is ensuring that the benefits of the ocean economy are distributed more equitably. Developing economies often face a paradox: they rely heavily on ocean-based sectors for employment, income, and foreign exchange, yet capture only a small share of global value added. Many remain excluded from emerging, high-growth segments of the ocean economy, accounting for virtually none of global offshore wind capacity and only a marginal share of aquaculture production. Limited access to finance, technology and policy-relevant data constrains their ability to diversify and upgrade. At the same time, ocean warming, acidification, and pollution are already degrading marine ecosystems, undermining fisheries, tourism and coastal livelihoods on which these economies depend.
Offshore oil and gas, shipping, and industrial fishing, in particular, are dominated by a relatively small number of multinational corporations.
Market concentration across ocean industries adds another layer of complexity. Many sectors are characterised by high capital intensity and increasing consolidation. The top 10 companies across key ocean industries generate a substantial share of total revenues, while the largest 100 firms account for about 60 percent. Offshore oil and gas, shipping, and industrial fishing, in particular, are dominated by a relatively small number of multinational corporations. While such concentration can support efficiency and innovation, it also raises concerns regarding competition, equitable access to resources, and environmental accountability. Addressing these issues will require effective regulatory frameworks, greater transparency and policies that support small-scale operators and community-based enterprises.
Environmental sustainability represents an overarching challenge. The health of marine ecosystems is under increasing pressure. As early as 2011, around 60 percent of the world’s major marine ecosystems were estimated to be degraded or used unsustainably. Since then, the impacts of human activities, including climate change, overfishing, pollution, and habitat loss, have intensified. The ocean is now experiencing warming, acidification, deoxygenation, biodiversity loss, sea-level rise and more frequent extreme weather events. These changes not only threaten marine ecosystems but also undermine the long-term viability of the economic activities that depend on them.
There is growing evidence that a sustainable ocean economy can play a central role in addressing these challenges. If managed sustainably, the ocean has the capacity to regenerate, enhance resilience and support more inclusive development. It can provide sustainable food through responsible fisheries and aquaculture, and deliver low-emission energy that strengthens energy security. The conservation and restoration of coastal ecosystems of coastal mangroves can reduce vulnerability to extreme weather events while supporting biodiversity and livelihoods.
The future trajectories of the ocean economy will depend critically on policy choices made today. Continued ecosystem degradation and insufficient investment in productivity could lead to stagnation or decline. By contrast, an accelerated transition towards sustainable and low-carbon pathways could see the ocean economy expand significantly by 2050, accompanied by structural shifts in its composition. In such a scenario, sectors such as marine and coastal tourism would remain prominent, while the relative contribution of offshore oil and gas would decline.
Realising this potential requires action in four priority areas.
First, strong governance and political leadership are essential. Governments need clear, evidence-based national strategies for a sustainable blue economy that integrate economic, environmental and social objectives. Policy frameworks are often fragmented across sectoral ministries, limiting coherence and effectiveness. Given the interconnected nature of ocean systems and the sectors that depend on them, more integrated and cross-sectoral approaches are required to manage trade-offs and harness synergies. While several countries have begun to develop national strategies and institutional arrangements, such as Norway, Portugal, and Indonesia, significant gaps remain, including in access to the data and evidence needed to develop these strategies. These challenges are especially acute in developing economies.
Given the interconnected nature of ocean systems and the sectors that depend on them, more integrated and cross-sectoral approaches are required to manage trade-offs and harness synergies.
Second, improving data, analysis, and innovation is critical. Developing ocean accounts that link economic activity with environmental impacts can provide a more comprehensive understanding of the ocean’s value. Expanding ocean observation systems and leveraging digital technologies, including automation and robotics, can enhance productivity while reducing environmental pressures. At the same time, investments in skills and innovation ecosystems will be essential to support the transition across ocean sectors.
Third, scaling up finance for a sustainable blue economy is indispensable. Innovative financial instruments, such as blue bonds, blue carbon credits, debt-for-nature swaps, insurance mechanisms and blended finance, offer opportunities to mobilise private investment. Seychelles issued the world’s first sovereign blue bond in 2018 to support sustainable fisheries, while Belize restructured part of its national debt through a debt-for-nature swap in 2021, committing to expanded marine protection. In carbon markets, projects such as Mikoko Pamoja demonstrate how coastal ecosystems can generate blue carbon credits while supporting local communities. Official development assistance (ODA) can also play an important role. However, broader systemic changes are needed to align financial flows with sustainability objectives. Public policies and financial regulations must better integrate ocean-related risks and incentives. Persistent gaps in corporate disclosure of ocean-related impacts continue to limit transparency and accountability, underscoring the need for stronger reporting standards aligned with sustainability frameworks.
International momentum has increased in recent years, notably with the adoption of Sustainable Development Goal 14 and ongoing global efforts to conserve and sustainably use the ocean.
Finally, stronger global cooperation is fundamental. Multilateral cooperation is essential in the sustainable blue economy, as the interconnected nature of ocean systems means that environmental, economic and social impacts often transcend national boundaries. International momentum has increased in recent years, notably with the adoption of Sustainable Development Goal 14 and ongoing global efforts to conserve and sustainably use the ocean. These initiatives have helped elevate the ocean on the international policy agenda and foster partnerships and voluntary commitments. In a context of heightened geopolitical uncertainty, maintaining and strengthening cooperative frameworks will be critical to advancing shared solutions and ensuring that no country is left behind.
The sustainable blue economy stands at a pivotal juncture. Its future trajectory is neither predetermined nor guaranteed to be sustainable or inclusive. With the right governance, policies, investments, and international cooperation, the ocean can remain a powerful driver of prosperity,, resilience, and opportunity, delivering long-term value for people and the planet. The OECD stands ready to support countries in navigating this transition, bringing together cutting-edge analysis and policy guidance spanning sustainable ocean economy country diagnostics and blue recovery hubs, blue finance, ocean measurement and accounting, and ocean innovation, as well as marine ecosystems, fisheries, and development co-operation. By leveraging an integrated approach, the OECD can help drive more coherent policies, mobilise investment and accelerate the shift towards a more resilient and sustainable blue economy.
Piera Tortora is Special Advisor to the OECD on sustainable finance, blue economy and South East Asia engagement.
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Piera Tortora is Special Advisor to the OECD on sustainable finance, blue economy, and South East Asia engagement. Previously, Piera was the Head of the ...
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