World Oceans Day is an opportunity to highlight the interconnection between marine conservation and the maritime industry, acknowledging that global trade depends entirely on a healthy, thriving ocean
This piece is part of the series 'Governing the Oceans: Rethinking Access and Equity'
While the maritime industry serves as the lifeblood of world trade — carrying over 80 percent of goods traded worldwide — it also leaves a significant footprint, emitting approximately 1 billion tons of greenhouse gases (GHG) annually, equivalent to around 3 percent of global GHG emissions. Without a radical shift in business as usual, the outlook is sobering. Forecasts estimate maritime shipping emissions could rise by 60 percent by 2050.
Beyond these environmental concerns, geopolitical tensions and the inherent volatility of fossil fuel prices increasingly threaten global operational stability. The recent diversion of vessels from the Strait of Hormuz and the price spikes driven by the war in Iran demonstrated the fragility of business as usual. For modern companies dependent on global shipping for their operations, staying the course constitutes a fundamental convergence of both environmental and commercial risks.
Given these changing variables, the future of shipping is currently being rewritten. Established refuelling hubs, traditional energy sources, and current ways of doing business are all shifting. The creation of a reliable, resilient, low-emission maritime sector is contingent on the strategic adoption of innovative clean energy fuels. By diversifying energy sources and transitioning to sustainable alternatives, the industry can simultaneously decarbonise its operations and future-proof global supply chains.
The Scalable Potential of E-Fuels
The maritime sector’s transition toward a scalable, economically viable energy paradigm is supported by an emerging portfolio of next-generation fuels. Industry experts anticipate a multi-fuel approach in the future to meet diverse operational requirements. In particular, e-fuels represent the most sustainable and scalable trajectory for full decarbonisation currently available, especially for long-distance transoceanic shipping where electrification is not a viable option. Made with low-carbon hydrogen produced with renewable energy, e-fuels such as e-methanol, e-ammonia, and e-methane can reduce lifecycle emissions by over 90 percent on a lifecycle basis relative to conventional high-emission fuels.
E-fuels represent the most sustainable and scalable trajectory for full decarbonisation currently available, especially for long-distance transoceanic shipping where electrification is not a viable option.
Actors across the maritime value chain are investing in e-fuels, creating a variety of new economic opportunities. E-fuels can be produced in many countries, including some that are currently excluded from traditional fossil fuel production by virtue of their geographic locations. This decentralisation of production has the potential to reduce dependence on major energy choke points currently disrupting global supply chains.
Building out e-fuel production is a pathway to jump-starting a greener world. A 2024 analysis suggests that decarbonising global shipping could spark up to four million new green jobs by 2050, particularly in Global South nations that are well-positioned for green fuel production.
The requirements — expanding renewable energy capacity, securing sustainable carbon sources, and building out electrolyzer infrastructure — also offer broader societal decarbonisation benefits. Beyond maritime, e-fuels can serve as direct alternatives in chemical manufacturing, agriculture, and power generation. Immediate scaling of these new markets can create a multiplier effect, leveraging economies of scale across multiple sectors to lower prices and boost the availability of these solutions as part of an accelerated global shift toward a low-carbon economy.
Catalysing Change Through Private Sector Leadership
Scaling from research and development to commercial deployment requires targeted, strategic support and investment from the public and private sectors. Initiatives such as the Zero Emission Maritime Buyers Alliance (ZEMBA) are prime examples of how private sector leadership can act as a catalyst, turning these innovative fuel pathways into reality. By collaborating to make advanced market commitments for scalable clean fuels and technologies, such as e-fuels, ZEMBA’s first-mover corporate buyer members are demonstrating long-term market demand. This approach is already catalysing commercial deployment and resulting in measurable impact: ZEMBA’s inaugural tender is set to abate at least 82,000 tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent from 2025-2026. Now, a second e-fuel-focused tender is driving some of the first commercial deployments of e-methanol and e-ammonia in the maritime sector. Essentially, ZEMBA is instilling the market with the confidence needed to unlock capital, reducing corporate footprints, and rewarding the bold nations ready to lead the clean energy transition.
ZEMBA is instilling the market with the confidence needed to unlock capital, reducing corporate footprints, and rewarding the bold nations ready to lead the clean energy transition.
Overcoming Fragmented Policy for a Clean Energy Future
First-mover private sector actions are a vital spark, but they alone are not sufficient to support maritime’s transition or promote the multiplier benefits for other critical sectors. To support the transition, the maritime sector requires a clear, ambitious, and uniform regulatory ecosystem. However, the industry is currently stalled by a fragmented policy landscape, including a continued lack of clarity from shipping’s global regulator, the International Maritime Organization (IMO). The lack of regulatory alignment and certainty is resulting in confusion and investor hesitation. Measures such as carbon pricing and fuel standards are necessary to create a predictable playing field for the private sector to compete and gradually raise ambition over time, allowing businesses to adapt and innovate. Unfortunately, global policies such as the IMO’s net-zero framework, which supports the goal of fully decarbonising the sector by or around 2050, continue to face geopolitical headwinds that are stalling the industry’s decarbonisation momentum.
Nations and supranational entities have proactively implemented their own measures to drive maritime decarbonisation. At the regional level, the European Union has implemented the world’s first regional GHG intensity regulation of maritime fuels through its FuelEU policy and, since 2024, included maritime shipping in its Emissions Trading System (EU ETS). At the country level, nations like China are ramping up renewable hydrogen production, investing billions in clean energy development around the world, and specifically focusing on increasing the supply of sustainable maritime fuels.
Ultimately, a synchronised approach to global incentives and regulations will offer the predictability needed to avoid an uncertain, choppy, and disruptive transition.
Among democracies, India is emerging as a strong leader. India’s National Green Hydrogen Mission has an outlay of INR 19,744 crore (US$ 2.09 billion) in funding up to the financial year (FY) 2029-2030 to incentivise cross-sectoral clean energy production, including an earmarked INR 115 crore (US$ 12.18 million) dedicated to maritime shipping pilot projects until FY 2025-2026.
These actions demonstrate the eagerness of many countries to invest in next-generation fuels. Still, more work is needed to accelerate the maritime sector’s clean energy transition globally while enabling the creation of new economic opportunities for emerging economic powerhouses and future energy leaders such as India.
The success of the maritime sector’s decarbonization journey depends on policies and private sector action that advance scalable solutions capable of generating significant cross-sectoral multiplier effects. However, the current patchwork of fragmented regional policies is creating systemic inefficiencies that risk stalling global momentum and stifling the innovation being undertaken by first movers.
Ultimately, a synchronised approach to global incentives and regulations will offer the predictability needed to avoid an uncertain, choppy, and disruptive transition. The current geopolitical volatility and predicted continued variability in pricing and availability of fossil fuels provide an additional incentive for action and investment in a diversified range of clean energy solutions. The long lifespan for maritime infrastructure means that investments need to begin in earnest today to ensure maximum impact and benefits down the line.
A global, unified approach is the only way to stabilise markets and uphold the principles of equity as the maritime sector transitions to greener fuels. Acting now to bridge the gap between policy and private sector ambition can turn the tide toward a sustainable future for both global trade and the planet.
Ingrid Irigoyen is President and CEO of the Zero Emission Maritime Buyers Alliance (ZEMBA).
The author conveys her thanks to Taylor Goelz, Michellie Hess, Rishma Vora, and Dr. Charlie McKinlay.
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Ingrid Irigoyen is the Senior Director, Market Innovation, for the Aspen Institute Energy and Environment Program (EEP), where she leads EEP’s work designing and implementing ...
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