While Sindoor ended in under four days, the next conflict could be much longer and far more destructive. India needs to fix the gaps and be ready to respond to any Pakistani provocation.
This article is part of the essay series: From Response to Reorientation: One Year of Operation Sindoor
Operation Sindoor lasted just over 80 hours, but the strategic imperatives it has unveiled and unleashed are proving far more enduring for both India and Pakistan. The lessons learnt by both sides during the conflict—right ones as well as wrong ones— will determine if there will be more of such clashes, and if so, their intensity, ferocity, and longevity, not just in terms of time but also space or geography. Lessons from other war theatres such as Ukraine and Iran will also come into play if and when India and Pakistan go to war.
Op Sindoor marked a significant change in India’s posture and policy on cross-border terrorism. After the ‘pause’ in operations, Prime Minister Narendra Modi laid out India's policy in clear terms. According to him, India will consider an act of terror as an act of war, and it will not make any distinction between state and non-state actors, signalling that, next time, the Pakistan government and military will be targeted simultaneously along with terrorist bases, camps, and facilities. India will target terrorists regardless of where they are located. In other words, attacks will be carried out not just in Pakistan-occupied Jammu and Kashmir and Pakistan-occupied Gilgit-Baltistan, but also in the heart of Pakistan. India would also not succumb to Pakistan's nuclear blackmail. A corollary is that India will dominate the escalation ladder, as it did during Op Sindoor. The messaging was clear. Restraint has been replaced by resolve to take the fight to the enemy. The rhetoric of retaliation has translated into robust action.
Op Sindoor marked a significant change in India’s posture and policy on cross-border terrorism.
Aside from the policy of going kinetic to fight terrorism, Op Sindoor also served as a wake-up call for India about the reliability—or lack thereof—of the myriad types of ‘strategic’ partnerships it has cultivated. The rose-tinted glasses of strategic ties with the US and other Western powers have been shattered. While Chinese support for Pakistan was no surprise, Indian armed forces have always factored in this collusion. What did come as a bit of a surprise was suspected American intelligence support for Pakistan. Although there is some disagreement within the military over the scale and scope of the information US CENTCOM shared with Pakistan, there is now deep suspicion and distrust of the Americans' reliability. At the political level, the American administration has destroyed the bilateral trust. What is worrying is that many in the Indian establishment have a touching faith that US pampering and propping up of Pakistan is a temporary phase and will change once Trump is no longer in power. This is a strategic blind spot in India, and the sooner it is rectified, and the realisation dawns that the US won’t let go of Pakistan, the better it will be for India.
The unreliability and undependability of ‘strategic’ partners, coupled with the first non-contact, almost-war-like conflict, have led to a frenetic scramble to build up and modernise the defence forces and equip them with the instruments, platforms and weapons of modern war. While the Indian defence forces successfully pushed back the Pakistani attacks, there were serious gaps that needed to be filled. The greater focus is on drones, Electronic Warfare (EW), cyber, space, stealth, intelligence, missiles, air defence, etc. All this is encapsulated in the Sudarshan Chakra defence shield that is to be built indigenously over the next decade to provide near-comprehensive coverage across India. In other words, India is now moving rapidly towards both offensive and defensive capabilities to address future threats to national security. This also means having the capability to build large stockpiles of drones, missiles, and interceptors, and to ramp up production in the event of war.
While the Indian defence forces successfully pushed back the Pakistani attacks, there were serious gaps that needed to be filled.
On the Pakistani side, Trump-type claims of fake victory cannot hide the heavy blows taken by the Pakistani armed forces, which were forced to seek American intervention. Even if the Pakistani people, politicians, and pliant media play dumb, the Pakistani military knows how badly it was hit. The Pakistanis are also working double time to rebuild their capabilities and re-examine their strategic doctrines, which have been blunted by India's refusal to give in to their nuclear blackmail. They need to reinforce deterrence, partly by making their nuclear blackmail credible once again and partly by rebuilding their conventional capabilities.
Pakistanis are seeking Chinese 5th-generation fighters and advanced air defence systems to protect them against BrahMos and other missiles. They are also focusing on EW, drones, missiles (including anti-ship missiles), submarines, etc., to fight India. Diplomatically, Pakistan has realised that it needs allies and partners to balance out India and gain access to technology that gives it an edge over India. Their go-to partners are China and Türkiye, and they hope to have their Americans in their corner in any confrontation with India. The Pakistanis will also double down on diplomatic lawfare against India, hoping that the diplomatic inroads they have made recently will help them win what they cannot on the battlefield.
Doctrinally, Pakistan’s old bugbear of lack of strategic depth haunted it during Op Sindoor. India hit targets along the length and breadth of Pakistan and in deep interiors, including the capital city and at least two out of four provincial capitals. Pakistan’s attacks, on the other hand, did not cross a narrow belt along the Indo-Pak border and Line of Control in the Union Territory of Jammu and Kashmir. If the statements of the Pakistani military’s spokesperson are to be taken at their word, Pakistan appears to be preparing for strikes deeper inside India. According to Pakistanis, next time they will hit east of India, and also have cities like Bengaluru, Hyderabad and Mumbai in their cross hairs. They have also issued threats against vital economic targets, such as refineries and ports.
The Pakistanis will also double down on diplomatic lawfare against India, hoping that the diplomatic inroads they have made recently will help them win what they cannot on the battlefield.
This is also the lesson of the Iran war. If you can cause unacceptably serious damage with conventional means, you don’t need to do nuclear sabre-rattling. Even if the Pakistanis are loudmouths, given the fact that they have missiles that can target these cities and economic infrastructure, India must be prepared for their defence. More importantly, India needs to clearly convey to Pakistan that if they aim to target any city, it would invite overwhelming retaliation.
Given that India is now on a hair trigger, according to PM Modi, Op Sindoor has been ‘paused’, the retaliation to any Pakistani terror attack must be swift. For this, targets must be pre-selected and pre-programmed, and Pakistani responses must be factored in and prepared for. India cannot afford to wait days or even weeks before retaliating, because that gives Pakistan time to prepare. This becomes more important given that both thresholds and warning times are declining sharply. Over the last 80 years, India and Pakistan have refrained from targeting civilian population centres and economic infrastructure. But given the radicalised jihadist mental make-up of the Pakistan army, it is highly likely that the restraint of the past may no longer figure in future clashes. India must, therefore, be prepared, not just militarily but also psychologically.
The Indian public must be made aware that the border has shifted and their homes could be targeted in the event of conflict. Equally important, the Indian security establishment needs to rethink the placement of its cantonments and command-and-control centres, as these will be targets of the enemy. Anything above ground is now a target for missiles and drones.
The Indian security establishment needs to rethink the placement of its cantonments and command-and-control centres, as these will be targets of the enemy.
One year after Op Sindoor, India and Pakistan are closer to another shooting match than at any time in the past. They are both primed for a fight they see coming. And yet, there is also a realisation in Pakistan that the impunity it enjoyed to terrorise India is no longer available. While Sindoor ended in under four days, the next conflict could be much longer and far more destructive, and will be more multi-domain than the last. India needs to fix the gaps and be ready to respond with force and fury to any Pakistani provocation.
Sushant Sareen is a Senior Fellow at Observer Research Foundation.
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Sushant Sareen is Senior Fellow at Observer Research Foundation. His published works include: Balochistan: Forgotten War, Forsaken People (Monograph, 2017) Corridor Calculus: China-Pakistan Economic Corridor & China’s comprador ...
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