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Shivam Shekhawat and Sushant Sareen, Eds., “Pakistan in Perspective: A Post-Operation Sindoor Analysis,” ORF Special Report No. 308, Observer Research Foundation, June 2026.
Pakistan’s Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister, Ishaq Dar, met United States (US) Secretary of State Marco Rubio on 29 May 2026 during an official visit to Washington. In a statement released by Pakistan’s Foreign Affairs ministry after the meeting, the US Secretary of State acknowledged Islamabad’s effort at mediating the ongoing conflict in the Middle East and reiterated the US’s commitment to expand cooperation in trade and investment with Pakistan.[a]
In the past year, Pakistan has been attempting to push a “victory” narrative addressed to both its domestic constituents as well as external observers. Such strategic messaging from Islamabad covers Operation Sindoor—during the campaign itself and in its aftermath—as well as its mediatory role in the Middle East crisis which it is framing as a diplomatic victory given its close relationship with all the parties involved.
For India, any degree of diplomatic and geopolitical relevance accorded to its neighbour and rival raises its threat perceptions. This special report, conceptualised after the India-Pakistan crisis of May 2025, offers an assessment of the key trends and developments within Pakistan, as well as of its dealings with its neighbours and other important partners, in the past year. The report is divided into three sections.
The articles in the first section discuss aspects related to Pakistan’s internal social, economic, political, and security situation. It opens with Aparna Pande’s chapter on the developmental challenges faced by Pakistan, including the gaps in human capital and economic growth. Sushant Sareen then describes the state of the country’s civilian government as well as the opposition, and the fragility of the hybrid political structure in place. Building up on this theme, Soumya Bhowmick, in his article, argues that Pakistan’s economy will continue to remain dependent on external assistance unless it undertakes domestic reforms and utilises the relief offered by the bailouts to undertake overdue structural changes.
In the fourth chapter, Soumya Awasthi illuminates Pakistan’s media landscape and describes how the state uses both digital and traditional media to reinforce its narratives, particularly in the context of its relations with India. In the final chapter of this section, Shakoor Ahmad Wani focuses on what is perhaps Pakistan’s gravest internal challenge—the enduring insurgency in Balochistan, its transition to a more urban-centric nature, and its growing international visibility.
An underlying theme in the first section is the impact of the military’s oversized role in the country’s governance and its percolation into the political, economic, and social domains. To unpack this impact in detail, the second section begins with Rana Banerji’s stocktaking of the civil-military dynamics in Pakistan, tracking the country’s apparent grievances following the partition of the sub-continent in 1947 to the May 2023 anti-army agitation led by the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaaf (PTI), while positing that the military dominance over the country will likely not diminish in the foreseeable future. The elevation of Asim Munir to Field Marshal in May 2025, and the subsequent passage of the 27th constitutional amendment in November has fundamentally altered the dynamics amongst the three services of the armed forces. In his chapter on Pakistan’s land forces, D.S. Hooda delves into the organisational structure, the modernisation efforts, and the doctrinal developments in the country’s land forces, and their overtly ‘India-centric’ scaffolding. Sarabjeet S. Parmar then gives an account of the Pakistan Navy’s capacity and capabilities in his chapter, its asymmetry with the Indian Navy, and its diplomatic role. Diptendu Choudhury’s article reflects on the Pakistan Air Force’s doctrinal and operational limits and how it navigates the predominance of the army as well as the PAF’s performance during Operation Sindoor. Manpreet Sethi closes this section with a discussion of Pakistan’s policy of deterrence through brinkmanship aimed at constraining India’s conventional response in the face of a terrorist attack and magnifying the fear of a nuclear war.
The report pivots to its final section, which covers Pakistan’s most critical external relationships. Following the May 2025 crisis, Pakistan was catapulted to a position of renewed diplomatic relevance. This has been a factor of both, the flux in the world order with the ongoing war in Iran and the return of the Trump administration in Washington, and the Pakistan military’s growing role in the face of a weak civilian leadership. The authors bring a broad-based understanding of the two most important actors in Pakistan’s calculations—the United States and China. Beginning with the ‘all weather friendship’ that Pakistan enjoys with China, Sana Hashmi’s chapter discusses the strategic foundation of the relationship and its inherent vulnerabilities. Husain Haqqani follows with an analysis of the recent upswing in US-Pakistan ties and the inherent transactional nature of the relationship.
Moving beyond these traditional actors, Shairee Malhotra and Aleksei Zakharov focus on, respectively, the European Union’s and Russia’s relationships with Pakistan and how the country fits in their regional worldviews. In the final chapter, Shivam Shekhawat analyses recent developments in Pakistan from a regional perspective, viewing the strategic gains that Islamabad had hoped to secure after the crisis last year and whether they indicate any structural transformation in its ties with the other South Asian countries.
It is the aim of this report to expand the readers’ understanding of Pakistan at this juncture in the country’s contemporary history, as it undergoes rapid transformations and sees an increasing consolidation of power by the military. Since the 2025 crisis and the overall instability in different parts of the world, it is a worthwhile and important endeavour to understand the developments within and outside Pakistan, and the impact they can have on the region and the rest of the world.
Shivam Shekhawat is Junior Fellow, Strategic Studies Programme, ORF.
Sushant Sareen is Senior Fellow, ORF.
All views expressed in this publication are solely those of the authors, and do not represent the Observer Research Foundation, either in its entirety or its officials and personnel.
[a] Ministry of Foreign Affairs-Pakistan (@ForeignOfficePk), “The Deputy Prime Minister/Foreign Minister, Senator Mohammad Ishaq Dar held a bilateral meeting today with the U.S. Secretary of State, Marco Rubio in Washington D.C,” X, May 29, 2026, https://x.com/ForeignOfficePk/status/2060391794756796757
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Shivam Shekhawat is a Junior Fellow with ORF’s Strategic Studies Programme. Her research focuses primarily on India’s neighbourhood- particularly tracking the security, political and economic ...
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Sushant Sareen is Senior Fellow at Observer Research Foundation. His published works include: Balochistan: Forgotten War, Forsaken People (Monograph, 2017) Corridor Calculus: China-Pakistan Economic Corridor & China’s comprador ...
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