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Until the lions write their own history, the tale of the hunt will always glorify the hunter. The sentiment of this famous African proverb came out repeatedly during an interactive session with African journalists at Observer Research Foundation on January 24, 2011.

Exercise Malabar and the trilateral dialogue have assumed significance in the backdrop of the US' rebalance to Asia and India's Act East Policy. The growing convergence of interests among the US, Japan and India on issues such as the Indian Ocean, maritime security, respect for international law and a stable Asian security order has driven the trilateral dialogue.

Maritime power projection, and not sea denial, is the answer to China’s creeping assertiveness in South Asia.

If India is unable to call the shots in Maldives, who will even take it seriously as a player in the region?

Prime Minister Modi is scheduled to visit Maldives in mid-March as part of the first-ever four-nation southern Indian Ocean trip by any Indian leader. The greater success and long-term achievement of the visit, will depend also on how it all goes and goes down well just now.

Three weeks well into the constitutional deadlock that has stalled governmental functioning an parliamentary proceedings alike, there is no end in sight still to the political crisis overwhelming the Maldivian archipelago. The infant democracy, which otherwise used to be inward-looking until the politico-constitutional changes of 2008, cannot allow to fail itself - and its political leaders cannot try to have it both ways, either.

With the Election Commission formally notifying the presidential polls for September 7, Maldives is gearing up to prove to itself and the rest of the world that democracy is very much at work in the Indian Ocean archipelago.

With only a week left for the scheduled second-round polling in the presidential elections on Saturday, 28 September, it may be time the stake-holders in Maldives arrived at an interim consensus, keeping the healthy and constructive future of the infant democracy at heart.

In Maldives, a midnight police break-in and alleged yet uncontested seizure of 'dangerous weapons' from Defence Minister Mohamed Nazim's residence has led to his unceremonious replacement by Maj-Gen (Retd) Moosa Ali Jaleel, until then High Commissioner to Pakistan.

Now, Maldives seems to be slipping steadily into the 'pressure cooker' mode. No solutions are in sight. None one knows what is going to happen next. May be, the ruling Yameen leadership should look around to learn its lessons from neighbouring Sri Lanka.

The January 16 arrest of Criminal Court Chief Justice Abdulla Mohammed, and the subsequent prosecution of then President Mohammed Nasheed, his Defence Minister Tholhath Ibrahim Kaleyfaanu and three senior army officials now should indicate the kind of 'institutional reforms' that Maldives requires.

With the presidential elections now set for September 7, political parties in Maldives are vying with one another to identify issues and package them attractively for the voters, many of them youth.

If the legal proceedings mid-way through the Maldivian presidential polls, now before the High Court, run its course, with the possibilities of appeals before the Supreme Court at different stages, the constitutional scheme could end up threatening its own base and basis, one way or the other.

A few incidents in four weeks, and the Maldivian Government is not taking any chances. The illegal import of five double-edged swords and some 'toy guns', shipped from China, and that of a stun-gun and face-mask as

A legislative deadlock involving the Executive and Parliament on the one hand, and the Executive and the Judiciary on the other, both leading to a serious and a series of constitutional crisis kept Maldivian politics and politicians on their toes for most of 2010.

A Male criminal court's sentencing of former President Mohammed Nasheed on 'terrorism charges' for 13 years in prison has revived 'democracy-deficit' charges and consequent global (read: West) discourse, this time against the government of incumbent President Abdulla Yameen.

With Maldive's Supreme Court serving 'contempt of court' notice on Election Commission members, a case is now getting increasingly made out for a review of the rights, powers and responsibilities of 'independent institutions'.

Maldivians, particularly the security authorities in the country, may have heaved a sigh of relief after the competing rallies by the NGOs and the political Opposition on the one hand, and the ruling MDP on the other, went off peacefully on Friday last.

There seems to be a need for conferring permanency of sorts for the All-Party Roadmap Talks that is now headed by Ali Mujthaba Mujthaba, aimed not only at national reconciliation but even more at national consensus and consequent national reconstruction.

India has assured Maldives to extend all technical expertise to resolve the current water crisis. India pressed the button after Maldivian Foreign Minister Dunya Maumoon called counterpart Sushma Swaraj soon after the seriousness of the crisis was known.

After privatisation, the 'managed float of rufiyaa against the dollar, and other aspects of governance under President Mohammed Nasheed, the Opposition has begun identifying the ills of 'western ways of governance' to individual sectors, and thus drive home their arguments against the Government, even more.

Maldives may have already opened up a national debate on the need for early electoral reforms, with a public assertion by President Mohammed Waheed Hassan Manik that the Bill that he had returned to Parliament on fixing a minimum membership of 10,000 for political parties to be registered for State funding,

A piquant situation seems to have arisen in Maldives, on the domestic front and also for its relations with India, after the trial court issued a second order to the police to produce former President Mohammed Nasheed, who has been in the Indian High Commission in Male.

That is the question large sections of the people of the Republic of Maldives have been raising as the small country in the Indian Ocean gets ready for the elections to its Parliament (Majlis), which are due to take place on December 31. While the Indian media and analysts have been devoting considerable attention to the coming re-poll (December 26) to elect the next President of Ukraine in order to see whether the elections there would be free a

In Maldives, all the four present and former presidents need to talk to each other, not talk at each other, as has been the case over the past five years if they are serious about constitutional and administrative reforms, in whatever way each one of them visualise.

The sudden and inexplicable way in which an 'investor-row' involving the Indian infrastructure group, GMR, is getting a new twist in recent days in Maldives, if unchecked, has the potential to rock the bilateral relations.

By applying for clemency to President Abdulla Yameen during the month of Ramadan, former President Mohammed 'Anni' Nasheed has put the ball in the court of the Maldives President. Yameen is now under twin-pressure on the Nasheed front.

Not all seems to have been lost to the infant Maldivian democracy. Arch-rivals in the still -unfolding national political drama have come together again, to re-vote two Bills to ensure mandatory assent after President Waheed Hassan Manik had returned them.

The People's Majlis, or Parliament's confirmation of the nomination of Vice-President Mohammed Waheed Deen have taken the punch out of the MDP's argument against the need for a constitutional amendment for facilitating early elections.

Through a deft post facto damage-control, the Government of President Abdulla Yameen seems to have diffused and warded off - at least for the time being - what threatened to be a major diplomatic incident for Maldives, and involving the US and Russia,

Maldive's new President Mohammed Waheed's hands are going to be full as the country is left with a bagful of unresolved crises, each piling upon the other, all of them needing urgent or not-so-urgent attention from the new leadership.

Having kicked off the constitutional deadlock in Maldives, by getting the whole Cabinet resigned, President Nasheed needs to find a wayout of the imbroglio. A snap poll, either for the President or Parliament, or both, are the possibilities.

In Maldives, the stage is now set again for a possible, limited confrontation between the Executive and the Legislature with President Mohammed Waheed Hassan Manik returning two of the three crucial Bills passed by Parliament.

The Maldivian Democratic Party needs to give the nation and Parliament time to rework the institutional framework as they exist, though not time enough for imbibing in them a new sense of purpose and direction expected of them in a democratic scheme.

Three court orders in two days, one of them overseas, and the Maldives Government and the leadership of President Mohammed Waheed Hassan Manik seem to be in full control of the evolving political situation.

If the COVID19 situation does not reverse and dramatically so over a short term, India may have to redouble its current efforts and also increase supplies.

Notwithstanding the recent media leaks on a 'US military base' in Maldives, a decision on whatever that facility be, may have to wait until after the parliamentary polls of May 2014, not stopping with the presidential elections due in September this year.

It is true that former President Nasheed and his party is hurt that India did not act as it may have anticipated. But the party may have to look inward to as to what might have gone wrong, particularly in terms of assessments of the emerging situation.