Indo-Japanese partnership, now in its 60th anniversary year, continues to witness significant strides. The recent strategic, economic and energy dialogues, held in New Delhi on 30 April and 1 May, testified again to the rapidly growing strength of their relationships. The 6th strategic dialogue was led by their respective foreign ministers - Mr. S.M.Krishna and Mr. Gemba Koichiro. Further, they also held a high level economic dialogue where Japan was represented by Mr. Edano Yukio, Economy, Trade and Industry Minister and Mr. Jimi Shozaburo, the Financial Services Minister and the Indian side by its Commerce Minister Mr. Anand Sharma. The fifth bilateral Energy Dialogue was also held along with these deliberations.
Civilian nuclear cooperation: Many of the decisions taken in these deliberations flowed from the extensive talks Japanese Prime Minister Noda Yoshihiko had with his India counterpart Dr. Manmohan Singh in December 2011 at the time of their summit meeting. As for the strategic talks between Mr. Krishna and Mr. Gemba, perhaps the most important issue that loomed quite large was how to promote bilateral cooperation in the civilian nuclear field.
Negotiations for a civilian nuclear cooperation accord had been pursued rather seriously by both countries and three rounds of talks had taken place already. But the Fukushima catastrophe of March 2011 slowed down the whole process of negotiations and when Prime Minister Noda came to New Delhi in December 2011, he could not pursue the subject with any vigour. He only indicated that Japan had not closed its doors on the issue. He stressed that while it was necessary for countries to learn lessons from the Fukushima calamity, negotiations with India would continue for finding a mutually acceptable solution.
Japan was, simultaneously, pursuing similar negotiations with countries like Russia, Vietnam, South Korea and Turkey. The usual argument about India’s non-participation in the NPT seems to have come back to haunt India in the bilateral talks. There were reports that while Japan was prepared to hold talks with India as a partner, it would have preferred New Delhi to join the NPT. The fact is that within Japan, the anti-nuclear movement had become so strong after the Fukushima crisis that it was difficult for the government to keep its reactors in an operational mould. There were powerful voices for decommissioning the nuclear reactors and those which had been shut down due to "stress tests" could not be restarted. It is of interest to note that with the closure of the Tamari reactor in Hokkaido on 5 May, 2012, all 54 reactors had become non-functional.
Considering the strong anti-reactor backlash in Japan, it would be difficult to foresee an early resumption of these reactors. The Japanese government has to reckon with this domestic factor while approaching the question of civilian nuclear cooperation with India. Those who are familiar with the positions taken by the two countries see a rather serious barrier that keeps them away from striking an acceptable solution. While India considers its past impeccable record in the non-proliferation sphere good enough to resume negotiations, Japan believes that India, a non-signatory to the NPT, should demonstrate its commitment to a ban on nuclear testing in black and white.
Business interests in Japan are quite anxious that without an agreement between Japan and India, American and French companies with technical collaboration with Japanese companies cannot set up plants in India. Further, when the Japanese government has agreed to supply nuclear technologies-related agreements with Vietnam, South Korea, Turkey, Jordan and Russia, they wonder, why India should be excluded from this sphere.
In spite of the uncertainties that marked the negotiations, Mr. Gemba still struck a note of optimism when he asserted that "we reconfirmed that we will move ahead with negotiations to conclude and agreements to obtain mutually satisfactory outcome.". This is tantamount to reiterating Japan’s earlier position that it had not closed the doors for negotiations.
Two new mechanisms: Another significant outcome of the strategic dialogue between the two foreign ministers is the establishment of two new dialogue mechanisms on maritime and cyber security. On maritime security, both India and Japan share common interests and concerns and have made several significant steps to boost their cooperation. In the last strategic dialogue, they decided to promote cooperation at the level of the Indian Navy and Japan Maritime Self-Defence Forces. The two navies are going to conduct a joint exercise by mid-2012.
Economic issues: On the economic front, both sides confirmed their determination to implement several ambitious schemes to strengthen India’s infrastructure. Both countries have pledged to invest $9 billion in the Delhi-Mumbai Industrial Corridor (DMIR). Further, they also agreed to prepare a master plan for the industrial development of South India, particularly the region around Chennai and Bangalore. This subject had been discussed by both Mr. Noda and Dr Manmohan Singh last December at the time of their summit meeting.
On trade, both countries noted that its total volume during 2001-12 had increased by 38% over the previous year. Recognising the impact of the Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA), which came into effect last year, it was hoped that the bilateral trade would reach the target figure of $25 billion even two years earlier -- by 2013 itself. In this connection, one should note how China’s latest policy of diversification of its rare earth imports has opened up opportunities for India.
Both agreed that India would supply rare earth metals produced in the joint project, between the Toyota Tsusho Corporation and the Indian Rare Earths, to Japan. The joint project is projected to export per year about 4,000 tons of rare earth minerals - about 14% of Japan’s annual needs.
(Prof. K.V. Kesavan is a Distinguished Fellow at Observer Research Foundation)
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