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Renita D’ Souza and Tanya Rana, “The Role of Monetary Policy in Climate Change Mitigation,” ORF Issue Brief No. 350, April 2020, Observer Research Foundation.
Introduction
Global economic prosperity has come at a heavy cost to environmental sustainability. The level of carbon emissions generated in the race towards increasing GDP levels has resulted in the phenomenon of climate change, manifesting in erratic weather, heightened natural calamities, more frequent droughts, rising sea levels, worsening pollution, and ocean acidification. The annual 2019 World Economic Forum’s (WEF) Global Risks Report has emphasised the urgency of formulating mitigation and adaptation strategies. Indeed, the United Nations (UN) estimates that the economic impact of climate change risks will reach US$ 28 trillion (18 percent of global GDP) by 2050. The economic transition required to tackle them, meanwhile, will require some US$ 1 trillion of incremental investments through to 2030.[1]
Climate crisis mitigation requires global carbon emissions to fall by 50 percent in the next decade and become net-zero by the end of the century.[2] Many countries, however, have hardly altered their economic growth paths in consideration of intergenerational equity and sustainability, unwilling to face the tradeoffs in output and economic prosperity. In the context of many countries including India, the fight against poverty and deprivation complicates the choice. Concerns about the sustainable future of the environment and the world get discounted at a rate that some might say is warranted, but which others might find unreasonable. The tradeoff between rapid economic growth and sustainability needs to be incentivised, to help formulate solutions to the climate change problem.
Indeed, the climate crisis requires consolidated efforts towards mitigation and adaptation strategies. Several central banks across the world have begun deliberating on the role they can play in this regard. A step in this direction is the establishment of the Network for Greening the Financial System (NGFS), a group of 54 central banks and 12 observers, in December 2017.[3] The essential question is how central banks can incentivise the tradeoffs between economic growth and ecological sustainability. Such tradeoffs in turn translate to a question of optimal allocation of resources, i.e., sustainability. The various responsibilities of the central bank—including monetary stability or financial stability—essentially involve mobilising, allocating and managing resources in a manner that seeks balance. This notion is defined differently for different contexts, and such variables determine the scope for central banks to contribute to combating climate change.
This brief highlights the climate-related risks facing India and the steps taken by the banking sector to mitigate the same. It is an attempt to fill the gap in existing literature on what the RBI must do to confront climate change-induced financial risks.
Climate Change and Financial Risks: A Taxonomy
The financial risks associated with climate change are of two forms: transition risks and physical risks.
Physical risks: The climate crisis is expected to lead to a decline in economic output by deteriorating capital and labour, as well as eroding their productivity, thereby setting off a cycle of economic instability. Climate change is predicted to spur a decline in consumption and investment demand until the market clears at a higher price under the pressures of the climate crisis.[4]
If physical risks are ignored for a long time, the economy may find itself trapped in a cycle of declining potential output and inflation—or stagflation. Tackling inflation caused by supply constraints has always been difficult for central banks as countering stagflation comes at the cost of reversing poverty reduction.[5]
Firms could suffer a liquidity crunch and increase their risk of default. The consequent credit rationing would in turn commence a credit cycle, culminating into a credit crisis. Household finance would migrate from corporate bonds to more liquid assets such as deposits and government securities, and consequently, asset prices would get deflated. Availing resources for the corporate sector would become difficult in the face of climate crisis.[6]
Banks also face the risk of defaults on loans.[7]
Transition Risks: These risks are associated with the transition to a low-carbon economy. In the process of transition, assets of firms heavily dependent on fossil fuels can get stranded, while policy and the broader trends favour purchases of green assets. This would bring immense pressure on the liquidity and revenue of these firms unless smooth re-pricing is in order following policy intervention. Asset price deflation in the face of re-pricing can lead to large price fluctuations. This re-pricing not only takes into account the current developments, but extrapolates them into the future. Along with the uncertainty around climate change, this will attract a risk premium that will only exacerbate the price fluctuation.[8]
Mapping India’s Vulnerability to Climate Change
The Global Climate Risk Index 2020 reports that in 2018 alone, India lost out on economic opportunities worth US$ 37,808 million in absolute terms, representing a three-fold increase from 2017.[9] The impact of climate change across the country is varied; the sectors likely to suffer the most negative impact are the rural and urban poor. A study shows the varying impact of changing weather conditions on livelihoods and demonstrates a “U-shaped relationship between temperatures and living standards for India.”[10] It is estimated that 600 million people living in the “hotspots” locations may be vulnerable by 2050 if circumstances remain “carbon-intensive”. The change in living standards is negative for the 10 states evaluated by the study. Agricultural households and inland areas will be the most vulnerable if no shift is observed from carbon-intensive to climate-sensitive practices.
Construction, agriculture, and food and beverages are expected to be the biggest industries that will be highly vulnerable to climate-induced vagaries. To begin with, agriculture is the largest employer in the country (211 million in 2015-16) while the construction industry is the third largest (52 million employed). India’s vulnerability to climate change is exacerbated by the intensity of economic activity and the population’s dependence on natural resources for their livelihood. According to the Economic Survey 2017-18, losses in farmers’ incomes in India due to climate change are pegged at 15-18 percent on average, increasing further to anywhere between 20- 25 percent in unirrigated areas.
According to the India Meteorological Department (IMD) report on climate change in 2019, the country has warmed by 0.61° Celsius in the last 100 years. India suffered devastation from eight cyclones over the past one year – five of which were formed over the Arabian Sea—against the normal annual rate of one incident. Apart from these severe cyclonic storms, other high-impact weather events like heat and cold waves, extremely heavy rainfall and snowfall, thunderstorms, and dust storms,[11] have caused serious devastation in many parts of the country. The report states that Bihar, with 650 casualties in 2019, suffered the most from heavy rains and floods, heat wave, lightning, thunderstorms and hailstorms.
Source: IMD report 2019
Heatwaves have been the worst among all extreme weather events in recent years, killing some 3,761 in India between 2015 and 2018, 2,081 of them in 2015 alone.[12] India was ranked as the “fourth most impacted” of extreme weather events in 2018.[13] This is because India is particularly vulnerable to climate change owing to its vast geography and diverse climate regimes across regions. From 1989 to 2018, droughts, extreme temperatures, floods, and storms have affected some 1,410 million lives in India, and the economic costs reached US$ 82,914.4 million for the same period.[14] Around 60,000 farmers have killed themselves in the past three decades, likely as a result of massive distress caused by failing crops due to climate change, and the consequent lack of income.[15]
Another grave crisis facing India is air pollution. Indeed, India leads the world on the count of premature pollution-related deaths per year at 2,326,771 for the period 1990 to 2017.[16] It ranks second for total annual premature air pollution-related deaths at 1,240,529 for the same period. Of the top 30 most polluted cities in the world, 22 are in India.[17] Air pollution kills approximately one child in India every three minutes.[18] Several factors intensify air toxicity, including stubble burning in certain states, construction activities that are done without cover, and high emissions of vehicular exhaust.
The Government of India has launched eight missions under its National Action Plan on Climate Change (NAPCC). These include the National Solar Mission, National Mission for Enhanced Energy Efficiency, National Mission for a Green India Mission, National Mission for Sustainable Agriculture, and National Mission on Strategic Knowledge for Climate Change. The following sections will appraise these initiatives from the perspective of the RBI’s ability to formulate monetary policy in a manner that facilitates their implementation.
Developing Countries and Green Banking
Developing countries have taken cognisance of the importance of green banking.[a] (See Table 1.)
Table 1. Green banking initiatives by different countries
Country | Banking Authorities | Green Banking initiatives |
BRICS countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) | New Development Bank | · Long-term infrastructure and sustainable development projects (from transportation renewable energy, water, urban renewal) [19]· The adoption of ‘Environmental and Social Risk (ESR) Framework to increase the stock of green investments[20] |
China | The People’s Bank of China (PBoC); the China Banking Regulation Commission (CBRC) | · The Green Credit Policy in 2007[21]· Green Credit Guidelines (2012) based on ESR framework[22]· Launch of green products and services[23]· Initiatives for greening banks’ operations[24]· Introduction of the Key Green Performing Indicators[25]· Tracking of data on loans with compliance issues[26]· Issuance of ‘Guidelines for establishing the green financial system’[27]· Introduction of green loans with an AA rating as collateral in the medium-term loan facility (MLF)[28]· Efforts to boost China’s green bond market- introduction of Green Bond Guidelines in 2015-16; regulatory changes for easing accessibility to interbank market for foreign investors interested in investments with positive environmental impacts;[29]Acceptance of green bonds as collateral from borrowing banks[30] |
Brazil | Banco Central do Brasil (BCB) | · Implementation of green and macro prudential norms[31]· E&S risk management binding on banks[32]· Mandating banks to undertake stress tests, simulate the consequences of climatic hazards on their balance sheets, and then determine appropriate capital adequacy measures[33]· Mandating prospective borrowers to furnish documents such as environmental licenses etc.[34] |
Indonesia | The Indonesian government agency– Otoritas Jasa Keuangan (OJK), the Central Bank of Indonesia |
|
Nigeria | Central Bank of Nigeria |
|
South Africa | Development Bank of South Africa |
|
Bangladesh | The Bangladesh Bank |
|
Prospects for Green Banking in India
According to the Indian Banks Association 2014, “Green Bank is like a normal bank, which considers all the social and environmental/ecological factors with an aim to protect the environment and conserve natural resources.” This definition has been interpreted as “greening” banking operations and habits of the clientele through the adoption of suitable technology that will reduce the carbon footprint of banking-related activities. Various Indian banks have taken initiatives towards green banking. These banks include the State Bank of India, Bank of Baroda, Punjab National Bank, ICICI Bank, Axis Bank, and HDFC.[48]
These efforts are expected to contribute to fighting climate risk. Yet more is expected from India’s banking system as a whole, given peculiar capacities arising from its functions.-
The same banks have begun to undertake green banking measures, including the following:[50]
These measures from India’s banking sector are in the right direction. They are, however, still sporadic in nature compared to the strategies being undertaken by its counterparts in other developing nations in the world. As a result, Indian banks have not managed to tackle the climate-induced financial risks facing the country. Furthermore, whatever mitigating effect these initiatives have had on climate change, would be difficult to measure. India needs a well-articulated plan that will define how the monetary policy can be formulated to tackle climate change. Fundamental to this plan is a banking ecosystem which has the RBI as the apex institution.
Domestic corporate bonds in India have a narrow investor base, with a majority of them comprising institutional investors. Prudential norms impose restrictions on insurance companies and mutual funds on investing in these bonds. The cost of borrowing via corporate bonds is higher in comparison with other mechanisms of raising finance. The corporate bond market also suffers from lack of liquidity. Given the current circumstances and what can be anticipated for the future, ceteris paribus, green bonds are going to gain value and enjoy the status of an asset as societies begin to consider sustainability as a pillar of human ecology. Given this, and from the perspective of deepening the domestic corporate green bond market, the RBI can hold green corporate bonds, while requiring commercial banks to do the same, perhaps as a requirement in terms of the Statutory Liquidity Ratio (SLR). Liquidity can be infused into the green bonds market by the RBI by fixing repo rates and reverse repo rates[b] in terms of green bonds, inter alia, as well. Green bonds can assume the role of liquidity adjustment, with RBI purchasing green bonds from banks when it wants to infuse liquidity into the banking system, and sell green bonds when it wants to absorb liquidity from the banking system.
An example that India can emulate is South Korea’s Green Credit Card, launched by the Ministry of Environment and the Environment Industry and Technology Institute to monitor and determine the consumption of carbon-intensive goods and services, transportation and use of energy. The Green Credit Card system rewards those who purchase eco-friendly products, utilise public transportation systems, adopt electronic transactions, economise on the use of electricity, water, and gas, and use electric vehicles. Rewards provided by the credit card is ultimately convertible into cash or can be used in other ways. Retail stores possess a green “Point of Sales” system which scans the bar code on products to identify whether they are eco-friendly or not and then registers eco-money points into the green credit card for the purchase of the same.[52]
India’s Ministry of Environment, Forestry and Climate Change, in collaboration with the RBI can launch the country’s own version of a Green Credit Card. The ministry should mandate companies to disclose their carbon footprint and incentivise consumers to purchase environment-friendly products. Of course, steps need to be taken to prevent greenwashing—i.e., making false claims about environmental compliance.
Conclusion
The impact of the climate crisis on the world is not unforeseen. There is no dearth of analyses and reports that have highlighted the burgeoning impact of climate change on societies, economic stability, and even conflicts across regions. Costs of food distribution, water availability, health, migration, and other socioeconomic costs, are all expected to increase over time due to extreme weather conditions and heat stress. These are likely to have the most severe impact on the most vulnerable communities, especially in developing countries like India where inequities remain stark. The unpredictability of climate change-related natural disasters increases the economic burden of a country that aims to undertake development in the fundamental elements of poverty alleviation: infrastructure, housing, amongst them – rendering them uninsurable. Unemployment becomes an ever-pervasive issue as heat stress and spread of diseases erode productivity of this crucial economic foundation. The country’s declining rank on indicators such as the Global Hunger Index will set to a persistent decline in the face of nature’s vagaries being undiscounted.[53]
This brief makes the case for a comprehensive economic plan by financial regulators, investors, and policymakers, that will be mainstreamed into their risk analysis frameworks. Crucial to India’s growth objectives, infrastructural development must imbibe a holistic approach to achieve mitigation and adaptation due to unforeseen climate stresses. Companies must take up the leadership in effectively evaluating the exposure to risks in their portfolios and subsequently shifting their investments towards greener assets. Incentivisation of the same must be heralded by the RBI by establishing frameworks towards green banking – differential interest rates, deepening corporate bonds market through green bonds, and effective inflation targeting. Other developing countries have begun taking cognisance of these issues and are effecting changes in their financial systems through a climate-sensitive prism. Given the urgent timeframe for climate action, the preparation of this framework must no longer be further delayed.
About the Authors
Renita D’ Souza is a Fellow, and Tanya Rana is a Research Intern, at ORF-Mumbai.
Endnotes
[a] Green climate banking can be defined as “central banking that takes account of environmental risks, stability and development of the financial sector and the macro-economy.” Green banks are also referred to as “purpose-built financial institutions that facilitate funding of clean-energy projects.”
[b] Repo Rate: The (fixed) interest rate at which the Reserve Bank provides overnight liquidity to banks against the collateral of government and other approved securities under the liquidity adjustment facility (LAF). Reverse Repo Rate: The (fixed) interest rate at which the Reserve Bank absorbs liquidity, on an overnight basis, from banks against the collateral of eligible government securities under the LAF
[1] Paul Fisher and Kern Alexander, Climate Change: the role of central banks,Working Paper No. 2019/6, April 2019, King’s College London
[2] Ibid.
[3] Tanya Rana and Renita D’souza, “Central banks’ intervention and the climate crisis,” the website of the Observer Research Foundation, 8 January 2020.
[4] Paul Fisher and Kern Alexander, op.cit; Yannis Dafermos, Maria Nikolaidi and Giorgos Galanis, Climate change, financial stability and monetary policy, Post Keynesian Economics Study Group Working Paper 1712, September 2017
[5] Ibid.
[6] Ibid.
[7] Ibid.
[8] Ibid.
[9] David Eckstein, Vera Künzel, Laura Schäfer and Maik Winges, Global Climate Risk Index 2020 (Bonn: Germanwatch, December 2019)
[10] Muthukumara Mani, Sushenjit Bandyopadhyay, Shun Chonabayashi, Anil Markandya and Thomas Mosier, South Asia’s Hotspots : Impacts of Temperature and Precipitation Changes on Living Standards. South Asia Development Matters;( Washington, DC: World Bank, 2018).
[11] Press release of IMD Mausam report 2019.
[12] Srishti Choudhary, “Heatwaves, the deadliest weather hazards in the last five years: WMO,” Livemint, 23 September 2019, https://www.livemint.com/news/india/heatwaves-the-deadliest-weather-hazard-in-last-five-years-wmo-1569211472334.html
[13] David Eckstein, Vera Künzel, Laura Schäfer and Maik Winges, op.cit.
[14] Ursula Fuentes Hutfilter, Anne Zimmer , Fahad Saeed, Bill Hare, Tina Aboumahboub, Ilsa Kelischek, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, Paola Yanguas Parra, Andrzej Ancygier, Robert Brecha, Jessie Granadillos, Gaurav Ganti, Raghuveer Vyas and Michiel Schaeffer, Decarbonising South and South-East Asia – India, Shifting energy supply in South Asia and South East Asia to non-fossil fuel-based energy systems in line with the Paris Agreement long-term temperature goal and achievement of Sustainable Development Goals (Climate Analytics, May 2019).
[15] Michael Safi, “Suicides of nearly 60,000 Indian farmers linked to climate change, study claims”, The Guardian, 31 July 2017.
[16] Richard Fuller, Karti Sandilya and David Hanrahan, Pollution and Health metrics (New York: Global Alliance on Health and Pollution report, December 2019.).
[17] Nick Van Mead, “22 of world’s 30 most polluted cities are in India, Greenpeace says”, The Guardian, 5 March 2019.
[18] “Air pollution kills a child every 3 minutes in India”, Down to Earth magazine,15 October 2019.
[19] Leslie Maasdorp, “BRICS’ New Development Bank turns four: what has it achieved?” the website of World Economic Forum , 20 September 2019.
[20] The website of the New Development Bank.
[21] Olaf Weber, Impact of Green Banking Guidelines on Sustainability Performance of Banks: The Chinese Case, CIGI Policy Brief No. 79, the CIGI website, 3 June 2016.
[22] Greening the Banking System – Experiences from the Sustainable Banking Network (SBN)
(Input Paper for the G20 Green Finance Study Group), International Finance Corporation (World Bank Group) and Sustainable Banking Network, October 2017.
[23] Ibid.
[24] Ibid.
[25] Ibid.
[26] Ibid.
[27] The People’s Bank of China and six other agencies jointly issue “Guidelines for Establishing the Green Financial System”, The website of People’s Bank of China, 1 September 2019.
[28] Ibid.
[29] Weihui Dai , Sean Kidney,and Beate Sonerud ,Roadmap for China, Green Bond Guidelines for the next stage of market growth (Climate Bond Initiative in association with IISD International Institute for Sustainable Development, April 2016).
[30] Feng Zengkun , “How China grew its US$30 billion green bond market”, the website of Eco Business, 29 March 2019.
[31] Adeboye Oyegunle and Olaf Weber, Development of Sustainability and Green Banking Regulations Existing Codes and Practices, CIGI Paper No. 65, April 2015.
[32] Ibid.
[33] Ibid.
[34] Ibid.
[35] Sustainable Banking in Indonesia, The website of Emerging Markets Dialogue on Finance.
[36] Ibid.
[37] Sarah Yuniarni, “IFC Invests $150m in Bank OCBC NISP’s Green Bond”, the website of Jakarta Globe, 1 August 2018.
[38] Edi Setijawan, Green Banking Enhancing Banking Role To Support Sustainable Development, Indonesian green banking.
[39] Adeboye Oyegunle and Olaf Weber,op.cit.
[40] Greening the Banking System – Experiences from the Sustainable Banking Network (SBN)
(Input Paper for the G20 Green Finance Study Group), International Finance Corporation (World Bank Group) and Sustainable Banking Network, October 2017,
[41] Country Progress Report-Nigeria, International Finance Corporation (World Bank Group) and Sustainable Banking Network, 2018.
[42] “Southern Africa establishes a ‘climate finance facility”, published on the website of the World Economic Forum, 13 September 2019,; A report by Convergence, DBSA and Coalition for green capital, June 2019,
[43] Adeboye Oyegunle and Olaf Weber,op.cit.
[44] Ibid.
[45] Ludovic Suttor-Sorel, “Seven Central Banks Leading on Climate Change”, the website of Positive Money Europe, 10 November 2017.
[46] Ibid.
[47] Ibid.
[48] Kavita Vadrale, Green Banking Initiatives by Indian Public and Private Sector Banks, Conference paper, February 2016.
[49] “SBI turns green, installs windmills”, The Economic Times, 23 April 2010.
[50] Ibid.
[51] Kajol, Bharath Jairaj and Deepak Krishnan, “PAT’s path to energy efficiency”, the Hindu BusinessLine , 2 May 2018.
[52] Green Credit Card| Republic of Korea
[53] “India ranks 103 on global hunger index”, the Economic Times, 15 October 2018,
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Renita DSouza is a PhD in Economics and was a Fellow at Observer Research Foundation Mumbai under the Inclusive Growth and SDGs programme. Her research ...
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