Thailand eyes BRICS for economic gains and strategic ties, but must navigate risks to sovereignty and policy autonomy.
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Source Image: Daily Sabah
In May 2024, Thailand officially submitted its application to join BRICS, positioning itself as the first Southeast Asian nation to do so. The Thai cabinet approved the draft of the official letter indicating the country's intent to become a member, reflecting Thailand's strategic ambition to boost economic growth and competitiveness on the global stage, diversify international partnerships, and elevate geopolitical influence.
Currently, BRICS countries collectively account for 22.8 percent of Thailand's total trade. China stands out as Thailand's largest trading partner among the BRICS nations, with trade reaching US$175 billion in 2023. Membership in BRICS could enhance this figure by providing access to new markets and reducing financial risks through diversified investments. Furthermore, Thailand could see an increase in foreign direct investment (FDI), especially from China and Russia, who are keen to strengthen their economic ties with the Southeast Asian markets.
Thailand's bid to join BRICS supports China and Russia's broader strategic goals of expanding their economic influence in Southeast Asia. For China, Thailand's membership represents an extension of its regional influence, complementing its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). This aligns with China's strategic interests of fostering closer economic ties and infrastructure development in Southeast Asia.
Thailand's bid to join BRICS supports China and Russia's broader strategic goals of expanding their economic influence in Southeast Asia. For China, Thailand's membership represents an extension of its regional influence, complementing its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).
Russia also views Thailand’s potential BRICS membership as an opportunity to strengthen its regional ties amidst strategic competition with Western powers. Aligning with BRICS allows Thailand to leverage these geopolitical dynamics to enhance its economic stability and growth, providing a buffer against global economic uncertainties.
BRI projects between China and Thailand illustrate extensive collaboration focused on improving infrastructure, boosting economic growth, and enhancing regional connectivity. Despite the ambitious nature of these projects, the momentum has waned due to the COVID-19 pandemic, which caused significant delays and disruptions. Projects like the Bangkok-Nakhon Ratchasima High-Speed Railway and the Eastern Economic Corridor have faced financial, logistical, and bureaucratic challenges.
Table 1: BRI projects between China and Thailand
|
Project |
Description |
Current Status |
Estimated Cost |
|
A flagship project under the BRI aimed at enhancing regional connectivity between Thailand and China. This high-speed rail line will ultimately link Bangkok to Nakhon Ratchasima, with plans to extend to Nong Khai on the border with Laos, integrating with the broader Kunming-Singapore Railway. The project started construction in 2017 and has faced multiple delays. The Thai government has committed to completing the project by 2028. Funded by Thailand with Chinese technological support. |
About 15 percent complete |
US $5 billion - US $9.9 billion |
|
|
A major economic development initiative transforming Chonburi, Rayong, and Chachoengsao into a high-tech industry hub. This project aims to enhance transport infrastructure, including ports, airports, and rail links, and boost the region's manufacturing and export capabilities. China has expressed strong interest in investing in the EEC as part of the BRI. Key infrastructure projects within the EEC include the expansion of U-Tapao Airport and high-speed rail links, which will integrate the region more closely with global trade networks. |
Ongoing |
US $44 billion |
|
|
An extension of the Bangkok-Nakhon Ratchasima line, further connecting Bangkok to Nong Khai and the China-Laos Railway. This railway forms a vital link in the broader BRI vision, facilitating seamless rail connectivity from China through Southeast Asia. This project is crucial for improving logistics and trade flows between Thailand and China. By enhancing this rail link, Thailand aims to bolster its economic integration with neighbouring countries and support regional economic growth. |
Planning and early construction stages |
Not specified |
|
|
A proposed initiative to create a shipping route across the Kra Isthmus in southern Thailand, connecting the Gulf of Thailand with the Andaman Sea. This canal would provide a direct maritime route, bypassing the congested Strait of Malacca and significantly reducing shipping times and costs. The project promises substantial economic benefits, including enhanced trade routes and strategic importance, but faces considerable political, environmental, and financial challenges. |
Proposal stage |
US $28 billion |
|
|
A joint venture between Chinese and Thai companies, part of the EEC, focusing on high-tech industries such as automotive, electronics, and renewable energy. This industrial zone is operational and continues to expand with new investments and projects. It represents a significant area of collaboration under the BRI, attracting billions of dollars in investment and enhancing Thailand's manufacturing capabilities. By fostering economic growth and facilitating technology transfer, the Rayong Industrial Zone plays a pivotal role in Thailand's broader economic development strategy. |
Operational and expanding |
Not specified |
|
|
Expansion of Thailand's largest port, a critical component of the EEC, aligning with the maritime objectives of the BRI. This project aims to increase the port's capacity and efficiency, supporting the expected growth in trade volumes. Enhancing Laem Chabang Port is vital for improving Thailand's logistics infrastructure, making it a key player in regional and global trade networks. The expansion will not only boost Thailand's export capabilities but also solidify its position as a strategic maritime hub in Southeast Asia. |
Ongoing |
US $5.5 billion |
Source: Author’s own, data from various sources.
(Disclaimer: GPT-4o has been used to help summarise the findings from various sources. The information is then edited and placed in the relevant column categories defined by the author.)
Thailand’s prospective BRICS membership could reinvigorate these projects by attracting additional investment and fostering greater economic integration. However, concerns over economic vulnerabilities, national sovereignty, and environmental sustainability add layers of complexity to these undertakings. Additionally, joining BRICS might pressure Thailand to align with the group’s strategic interests, limiting its policy independence and possibly conflicting with domestic priorities.
Thailand’s prospective BRICS membership could reinvigorate these projects by attracting additional investment and fostering greater economic integration.
The absence of formal trade and investment agreements among BRICS members further complicates the bloc's effectiveness and could pose additional challenges for Thailand in navigating trade relations within the group. However, strategic partnerships within BRICS, such as the ongoing economic diplomacy between India and China, highlight the potential for collaboration amidst competition. Initiatives like the New Development Bank and the proposed BRICS currency for member state transactions demonstrate the bloc's ambition to reduce dependence on the US dollar and counter Western economic influence.
In early 2024, the expansion of BRICS, which includes the addition of five new members—Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Egypt, Iran, and Ethiopia—marks a significant shift in the bloc's potential, making it an even more attractive alliance for countries like Thailand. The inclusion of major oil producers and emerging economies within BRICS could reshape global trade dynamics and create new investment opportunities, potentially offering Thailand more equitable trade terms and stronger economic alliances beyond traditional power centres in the West.
In early 2024, the expansion of BRICS, which includes the addition of five new members—Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Egypt, Iran, and Ethiopia—marks a significant shift in the bloc's potential, making it an even more attractive alliance for countries like Thailand.
Finally, the BRICS' expansion occurs in an era of multipolar politics, providing Thailand with a platform to navigate the complexities of global trade and investment more effectively. Thailand's potential membership in BRICS represents a strategic move that could significantly impact its economic and geopolitical landscape, aligning it with the broader trends of diversified global engagement.
Soumya Bhowmick is an Associate Fellow at the Observer Research Foundation.
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Soumya Bhowmick is an Associate Fellow at the Centre for New Economic Diplomacy at the Observer Research Foundation. His research focuses on sustainable development and ...
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