Attention has to be focussed on Saudi Arabia as it enters a period of transition and uncertainty in the wake of reports about a deterioration in the health of King Fahd, who has been admitted in hospital. In the absence of authentic reports on his health, rumours are rife that his end may be near.
The post-Fahd transition should be a matter of concern to India. Any instability and violence could have an impact on the flow and price of oil and on the so-called war on international jihadi terrorism. Such instability could be caused either by challenges from the other members of the ruling family to the efforts of Crown Prince Abdullah, the designated and widely expected successor, to consolidate his power and his control over the National Guards, the Armed Forces and the intelligence agencies or by an escalation in the activities of the Al Qaeda or both.
Saudi Arabia and Pakistan have been the main breeding grounds of jihadi terrorism. The brains of the Wahabi and the Deobandi ideologies motivating the international jihadi terrorists are respectively located in these two countries. Since the explosion in the New York World Trade Centre in February,1993, Saudi and Pakistani nationals have been in the forefront of the international jihadi terrorist movement, with the largest number of suicide terrorists coming from these two countries.
Fifteen of the 19 Al Qaeda terrorists, who carried out the 9/11 suicide terrorist strikes in the US, were Saudi nationals. According to a study made by Dr.Reuven Paz, the highly-respected Israeli counter-terrorism analyst, in March,2005, 94 out of 154 Arabs who participated in terrorist attacks in Iraq during a six-month period preceding his study, came from Saudi Arabia. That amounts to 61 per cent of the total.
The Al Qaeda in Saudi Arabia has shown a tremendous resilience, despite being subjected to ruthless suppression by the Saudi security forces. The loss of its leaders one after the other in encounters with the security forces has not dented its morale, motivation and determination. It has shown a remarkable capability to rise again and again after each fall and make its presence felt.
The spawning of so many jihadi terrorists from Saudi soil for participating in acts of jihadi terrorism either in Saudi territory or in Iraq or elsewhere indicates that the world has till now seen only the tip of the Saudi jihadi iceberg. There are innumerable sleeper cells in Saudi Arabia, which have been keeping the international jihadi terrorist movement sustained through the injection of funds, volunteers for suicide missions and other means.
The success of these sleeper cells speaks of local support---in the general populace as well as in the intelligence agencies and the security forces. And possibly, in some sections of the ruling family too. Without such support, it is inconceivable that there could have been an uninterrupted flow of volunteers for suicide missions in Iraq without being intercepted.
The nexus of the intelligence agencies of Saudi Arabia and Pakistan with the world of jihadi terrorism dates from the days of the jihad of the 1980s against the Soviet troops in Afghanistan. There is no reason to believe that this nexus, which now exists mainly at the middle and lower levels, has been broken. So long as this nexus remains intact, a strategic victory in the so-called war against terrorism will remain elusive.
The Al Qaeda iceberg in Saudi Arabia would be an important factor in determining the course of events in the post-Fahd transition.
* Views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Observer Research Foundation.
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