The key question surrounding the killing of al Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden is what effect this event will have on Pakistan Army, particularly its chief, General Ashfaq Kayani, who is on an extended tenure, and his confidant and ISI chief, Lt. Gen. Shuja Pasha who in fact has benefited from two extensions so far.
In the past several months, there has been a serious difference of opinion among the top and middle-rung leadership within the army about the extensions sought and given to first Kayani and then Shuja Pasha. Many felt that Kayani should give way to other senior commanders who were equally qualified and experienced to hold the command of the army. The fact that the US leaned on the civilian leadership to give the extension to Kayani for three years, and not one as was being suggested, did not go well down among some of the Corps Commanders who had to retire as a result. This extension has denied at least six Lt. Generals a chance to be considered for the top post.
Similar differences were aired during the debate on extending the tenure of Shuja Pasha early this year.
The second issue of discontent within the leadership has been the extent of cooperation with the US in targeting the al Qaeda and Taliban leadership and cadre operating within Pakistan. In fact, even during General Pervez Musharraf's tenure, some of this senior Corps Commanders had strongly opposed the beginning of the Drone attacks within Pakistan.
These are at least two of the reasons by Kayani has chosen to surround himself with his former colleagues in ISI when he was the chief. Incidentally, it was during Kayani's tenure as the DG ISI that the safehouse for Osama bin Laden in Abbottabad was constructed. At least three Corps Commanders-Lt. General Asif Yaseen Malik in Peshawar, Lt. Gen. Rashad Mehmood in Lahore and Lt. Gen. Mohammad Sahirul in Karachi-had worked in ISI when Kayani was the chief.
The killing of Osama bin Laden, one of the most prized assets of Pakistan Army, is likely to exacerbate these differences among the top and middle-rung leadership which has been quite uncomfortable with the US over the Raymond Davis affair and the Drone attacks.
If it is true that Pakistan Army and ISI had helped the CIA to hunt down Osama bin Laden, then it will be a serious problem for Kayani and his confidants to justify this 'sell out to the US' within the army, especially the ranks where radicalism has been rampant, and to a substantial section of the population in Punjab and elsewhere which view the US as the kafir (non believer) and Osama bin Laden as their own.
On the other hand, if the army and ISI were not completely oblivious of the US covert operation, then both Kayani and Pasha have to respond to the charge of colossal failure on their part.
Wilson John is Senior Fellow and Vice President, Observer Research Foundation
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