Taiwan’s civil society has hit the streets to register their displeasure against what they perceive as Beijing’s moves to get a backdoor entry into Taiwan’s democratic process.
Lai Ching-te’s term as Taiwan’s new President began on a stormy note on May 20 after Beijing interpreted his inaugural address as a soft pitch for independence. In his speech, Taiwan’s leader had urged the Communist Party of China (CPC) to recognise the existence of the Republic of China (Taiwan’s formal name), and engage with its elected representatives.
China views Lai with suspicion, especially since he had earlier described himself as a “pragmatic worker for Taiwan’s independence”, and it responded with military drills in the straits, named Joint Sword 2024 A. Almost on cue, the domestic opposition parties in Taiwan pushed laws that gave the members of parliament more oversight over the political executive. The laws will enable members of parliament (Legislative Yuan) to access more information from private individuals and corporate entities. Even institutions like the military will be brought under the purview of Taiwan’s domestic opposition, and could be mandated to divulge sensitive information. Giving this law more teeth will mean validating punitive measures like prison terms for those who found guilty of “contempt of parliament”.
The laws will enable members of parliament (Legislative Yuan) to access more information from private individuals and corporate entities.
Taiwan’s civil society has hit the streets to register their displeasure against what they perceive as Beijing’s moves to get a backdoor entry into Taiwan’s democratic process. This represents the re-emergence of “people power” as a pressure group. Experts in Taiwan express hope that the youth will become a guiding light for public policy discourse, since nearly 30% of its electorate lies in the 20-29 age bracket. Taipei had also witnessed an agitation in which demonstrators occupied the parliament building in 2014 to lodge their dissatisfaction against a trade deal promoted by the then-ruling Kuomintang party, as there were apprehensions that the agreement would bind Taiwan closer to the mainland.
Security and economic issues dominated the 2024 Taiwan presidential election, and Lai will have to address the latter soon. First, Taiwan’s economy is slowing down, with GDP growth dropping to 1.4% in 2023. Second, following military tensions in the straits since the 2022 visit of then-US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, foreign direct investment (FDI) has dipped. FDI inflows in January-November 2023 dipped 13% compared to the same period in 2022. Taiwan’s minimum wage is low, putting the island’s educated workforce at a disadvantage, given that the cost of real estate remains high. While ties with the mainland worsen, Lai will have to direct his attention to the economy too. In this respect, the ascent of “people power” is a double-edged sword for Lai, since failure to meet the aspirations of Taiwan’s youth can rebound on him.
Beijing’s designs Chinese President Xi Jinping will also be watching Lai carefully to plan his next moves. In his address to the CPC’s National Party Congress in October 2022, Xi said China could use military force to achieve Taiwan unification. This presents Xi with options like a large-scale invasion across the straits, an economic blockade, or secretly plotting a coup d’état. Ahead of the 2024 presidential election, China had made a pitch to Taiwan’s people that they face a choice between peace and prosperity or conflict, leading to economic decline.
Taiwan’s minimum wage is low, putting the island’s educated workforce at a disadvantage, given that the cost of real estate remains high.
Following the election, China’s ministry of state security put out an article stating that it was important to defeat forces promoting Taiwan’s independence. The intelligence establishment said that for the unification of Taiwan, it was imperative to bolster forces that shared the mainland’s views on unifying the breakaway province. The article argued for rallying public opinion in Taiwan, and pushed for building a covert front on the island that could discreetly pursue the mission. This was also followed by the visit of former Taiwan President Ma Ying-jeou to China to meet Xi this April.
Apart from empowering elements opposed to Lai, Beijing is also trying to overawe the people of Taiwan. Commenting on the recent Chinese military exercises in the straits, a commentary in China’s Science and Technology Daily boasts of the People’s Liberation Army’s (PLA) prowess in “subduing” Taiwan. The article states that the PLA’s joint drills enabled it to develop real-time combat capabilities in the Taiwan straits. It adds that the drills will enable the PLA to carry out an effective blockade of Kaohsiung Port (south of Taiwan), which handles a large volume of the island’s trade, and routes that serve as a supply line for the island. It adds that a sustained blockade will deal a blow to the island’s economy since its exports and energy imports are routed through sea lanes that PLA can gain control of.
Another piece in Guancha, a Chinese news portal with nationalist leanings, gauges the reaction of the Taiwanese public to PLA’s exercises. It quotes former Taiwan military figures assessing PLA capabilities as being better. They caution that repeated war drills may follow suit in the straits. Once normalised, the PLA may then launch a swift invasion and seize Taiwan by force. The article surmises that on account of the war drills ordinary Taiwanese say that they are at a “dangerous point” in mainland-Taiwan relations. They worry that President Lai peddling a “two-state” theory will worsen tensions that will have catastrophic consequences for livelihoods of the Taiwanese.
The article surmises that on account of the war drills ordinary Taiwanese say that they are at a “dangerous point” in mainland-Taiwan relations.
The Lai administration faces daunting challenges: a belligerent opposition, deteriorating relationship with the mainland, and reinvigorating the economy under the shadow of Beijing’s military coercion. Beijing will not ease the pressure on Lai, and may prefer a strategy to hurt Taiwan’s economy in the long run. Xi has professed his intentions to build bridges with elements on the island opposed to the Lai administration with an eye on putting roadblocks in the new government’s agenda. Nurturing such a fifth column can come in handy to create conditions that can generate disenchantment if the government is unable meet the aspirations of the electorate. Thus, China could engineer socio-political unrest in Taiwan, and then use pro-Beijing elements to stage a coup d’état. Such a scenario would not be in the realm of fantasy in light of the discovery of satellite pictures that purportedly show a replica of the Taipei presidential precincts in China’s Inner Mongolia.
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Professor Harsh V. Pant is Vice President – Studies and Foreign Policy at Observer Research Foundation, New Delhi. He is a Professor of International Relations ...
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Kalpit A Mankikar is a Fellow with Strategic Studies programme and is based out of ORFs Delhi centre. His research focusses on China specifically looking ...
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