The Russia-Ukraine war has demonstrated the importance of energy security, where many European countries were caught scrambling and developing new energy partnerships. The devastating impact of the war did not spare Africa too despite the geographical distance. As African leaders are reworking the energy basket of their countries, nuclear energy is emerging as the driver of this energy transformation.
Currently, Africa has only one nuclear plant, at Koeberg in South Africa, built by a French consortium. However, other African countries, which includes Ghana, Nigeria, Sudan, Rwanda, Kenya and Zambia, are projecting the use of nuclear energy to enhance electricity access for their citizens.
As African leaders are reworking the energy basket of their countries, nuclear energy is emerging as the driver of this energy transformation.
According to some estimates, Africa is expected to generate 15,000 MW of nuclear energy by 2035. Africa’s nuclear energy market is poised for significant growth, representing an investment opportunity of $105 billion. Unsurprisingly, many countries want a slice of this strategic market.
The scramble for Africa’s nuclear market
So far, France has dominated Africa’s nuclear market. However, it is rapidly losing its influence and struggling to maintain its relevance, particularly in Francophone Africa. Meanwhile, since 2023, the United States has been organising the US-Africa Nuclear Energy Summit (USANES). However, it will depend on U.S. President Donald Trump on whether and how he wants to proceed with the U.S.’s nuclear expansion plan in Africa.
Russia, another important player in Africa’s nuclear market, has inked several agreements with Egypt, Mali, Burkina Faso, and Burundi. Since July 2022, Russia’s Rosatom has been building a reactor in El Dabaa, Egypt, though progress is slow. With Korea Hydro and Nuclear Power (KHNP) at the helm, South Korea has also shown its interest in capturing this untapped market. However, the country that is undoubtedly winning the race for the nuclear market is China.
Explaining China’s dominance
China’s nuclear ambition in Africa is a relatively new phenomenon. In 2012, in cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), the China Atomic Energy Authority began a scholarship programme for students from African and South Asian countries wishing to develop national nuclear programmes. It served, among other things, to provide training in Chinese procedures and equipment to increase the chances of African countries purchasing them. Today, China has more than 50 operating reactors. Undoubtedly, China has emerged as an attractive partner for African countries interested in developing nuclear energy.
China’s nuclear expansion in Africa is being spearheaded by two large state-owned companies — the China General Nuclear Power Group (CGN) and the China National Nuclear Corporation (CNNC).
In 2024, during the Forum on China-Africa Cooperation (FOCAC) in Beijing, Nigeria signed a memorandum of understanding (MoU) with China that includes the design, construction, operation, upgrading, maintenance and decommissioning of nuclear power stations in Nigeria. The visit of Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi to Nigeria in early 2025 further cemented this collaboration.
At the same summit, Uganda also signed an MoU with China to build a 2 GW nuclear plant. The first unit, of 1 GW, is expected to be connected to the grid by 2031. Kenya also plans to have a research reactor in operation by 2030. While Kenya is still open on its choice of partner country, Ghana has selected the U.S.-based NuScale Power and Regnum Technology Group to build its Small Modular Reactors (SMRs), while China National Nuclear Corporation is set to build a Large Reactor (LR).
In West Africa, the junta leaders of Burkina Faso, Niger and Mali are all leading pro-Russian governments, and signed an MoU with Russia on the sidelines of the Russia-Africa Summit 2023. Although they have approached the Russian nuclear behemoth, Rosatom, to build their nuclear capacity, the massive investment required to make a nuclear power plant and Russia’s own economic stagnation due to the Ukraine war and associated sanctions may deter Russia from investing on such a large scale in far-away Africa. This would again most likely push these countries, desperate for foreign investment, toward China.
China is already leading the race in constructing new nuclear power plants across the world.
Africa’s nuclear ambition, impact on India
As the global drive toward cleaner and more efficient energy accelerates, Africa will increasingly consider nuclear energy as a panacea to the problem. Therefore, regardless of China and the debt trap risk, African countries would look to Chinese financing to support them in their nuclear journey. Today, China is already leading the race in constructing new nuclear power plants across the world.
Further, very few African countries possess the transmission networks required to receive and distribute power from these nuclear plants. China can also help build these transmission networks under the framework of its schemes such as the “Belt and Road Initiative”. If China manages to do that, this will not only enhance its position as a leader in Africa’s clean energy market but also entrench its overall dominance in Africa.
As of January 30, 2025, India’s nuclear generation capacity is 8,180 MW. As India aims to generate 100GW of nuclear energy by 2047, it would be important for India to secure African uranium. In 2009, India signed a civil nuclear cooperation agreement with Namibia. India also plans to develop some uranium mining projects in Niger and Namibia. Yet, with increasing Chinese dominance, it would be harder for India to venture in Africa’s nuclear market, impacting India’s energy security in the long run.
This commentary originally appeared in The Hindu.
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