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The fact that a renewed idea of nation-building for Syria is now down to a non-traditional political entity with roots in extremism keeps the trajectory of the state’s future in suspension
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In December last year the world was caught by surprise as the once Al Qaeda-aligned Hay’at Tahrir Al Sham (HTS was previously known as Jabhat al-Nusra) began to launch an offensive against Damascus and the near three-decade long rule of now ousted President Bashar Al Assad. Then led by Abu Mohammed Al Jolani (who is now known as Syria’s President Ahmed Al Sharaa), the fall of the Syrian capital was swift, and Assad fled to Russia in a matter of days. Now three months in, the country faces sectarian violence and potential of further instability. The entire episode holds strong parallels to the events that took place in Afghanistan in 2021 as the Taliban walked into Kabul unchallenged.
Syria has been on the precipice of political collapse for years. The post-Arab Spring era pushed the country to move against Assad’s rule which was increasingly seen as untenable. Not long after public protests began against Damascus in 2011, the rise of the so-called Islamic State (also known as ISIS or Daesh in Arabic) across Syria and Iraq escalated the Arab republic’s situation to a global security crisis forcing Western powers to launch Operation Inherent Resolve in 2014.
The post-Arab Spring era pushed the country to move against Assad’s rule which was increasingly seen as untenable.
Al Sharaa himself is a product of both jihadist ecosystems that were incubated around the 2003 US invasion of Iraq and the subsequent turmoil the Arab Spring which itself brought with it significant political vacuums and questionable alternatives filling them. This included a gamut of non-state militant actors and extremist groups that marketed security to local populations in exchange for their ideological subservience. At least some international support for Assad during this phase came from the family’s dogged support for secularism, driven by the fact that the Assads belonged from the minority Alawite sect (an offshoot of Shia Islam) in a Sunni majority country.
The HTS had been in control of Syria’s Idlib region for a long time, running it as a state within a state, building institutions and delivering a brand of governance if their supremacy was not challenged. In a population which has not seen anything but violence for over a decade, acceptance of this status-quo is not surprising. However, Al Sharaa as Syria’s new leader and the set of challenges this brings in can be divided into two core areas: internal and external.
Al Sharaa’s main concern and aim is for both political and military reconciliation. HTS even today does not control the entire geography of Syria completely. Over the past week, more than 1,000 Alawite minorities were reportedly killed in clashes between remnants of pro-Assad forces in the country’s coastal regions and the Syrian military now staffed by HTS loyalists which includes non-Syrians from Central Asia and even Uyghurs. Managing grievances of factions, specifically from fallouts on the battlefield over the years will remain a delicate and ongoing process. The recent reaffirmation by the Kurdish-led and US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) to integrate with Al-Sharaa’s military is seen as one vital step forward. The Kurds make up between 8% to 10% of Syria’s population and were at the forefront of defeating ISIS on the ground. Along with internal factions, Al Sharaa will also have to navigate regional states and their interests ranging from ideological demands from the likes of Saudi Arabia to strategic challenges posed by Israel’s unease of having an Islamist-led government right next door while it battles the likes of Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon.
The recent reaffirmation by the Kurdish-led and US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) to integrate with Al-Sharaa’s military is seen as one vital step forward.
The question of international legitimacy is also significant. Regional and European powers wasted no time to orchestrate an outreach to Al Sharaa, who exchanged his jihadist-era Salafist look (beard, white scarf and military fatigues) for a crisp suit and tie, a rapid rebrand from fighter to statesman. European foreign ministers arrived in abundance, as did officials from the US, and the new Syrian president travelled to Riyadh where he was born into a family belonging to the disputed Golan Heights. His second trip was to Türkiye. Normalizing his rule is a double-edged sword. After Afghanistan, Syria has become the second state to fall under control of an extremist entity. This poses a fundamental question as to what the future trajectory of the fight against terrorism is going to be. For Europe and others, two core interests are at work. First is to arrest any mass migration towards the continent, which previously re-modelled European politics towards the right. Second, to take advantage of the fact that both Russia and Iran, Assad’s main patrons, have been forced to exit this theatre.
Closer to the borders, Al Sharaa will also have to navigate regional interests in a way where Syria does not become a proxy battle ground once again. He would not want to get entrapped into a West-led narrative against Moscow and Tehran. While some reports already suggest new Iran-backed groups are taking shape, Damascus is looking to initiate talks with Russia on the future of their two military bases around the Tartus region, Kremlin’s only military presence in the region.
After Afghanistan, Syria has become the second state to fall under control of an extremist entity.
Finally, despite a perceived sense of relief and calm, Syria stands at a delicate juncture. A proverbial Domacles sword continues to sway over the country as it transitions away from one family’s control towards another unknown. The euphoria on the Syrian street today has more to do with relief that years-long violence has ended than celebrating change of political or ideological power. The fact that a renewed idea of nation building for Syria is now down to a non-traditional political entity with roots in violent extremism keeps trajectory of the state’s future in suspension.
This commentary originally appeared in Indian Express.
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Kabir Taneja is a Deputy Director and Fellow, Middle East, with the Strategic Studies programme. His research focuses on India’s relations with the Middle East ...
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