While the West is finally showing consistency in its aid to Ukraine, Trump’s return to power could potentially disrupt this trend.
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Source Image: UNC Chapel Hill
Earlier this month, the Biden Administration extended long-term security guarantees to Ukraine. President Biden signed a bilateral security pact with Volodymyr Zelensky during the G7 meeting in Italy, promising security for the next 10 years following the approval for the embattled country. The agreement includes plans for defending Ukraine now and in the future by creating a force that will be able to deter Russia. This would provide Ukraine with a military built to Western standards and push back the issue relating to Kyiv’s membership in NATO.
But the man who could be US President in November, Donald Trump, has other ideas. He has promised to end the war in Ukraine in a day and a Trump victory would lead to a major shift in American policy in Europe, if not the world.
A Reuters report says that Trump has been looking at a plan from two of his advisors that would force Ukraine to make peace. The US would threaten Ukraine with a weapons cut-off, if it did not enter into peace talks with Russia and Moscow would be persuaded to fall in line using threats to increase support to Kyiv dramatically.
The plan would essentially call for a ceasefire along existing lines. While the authors of the plan do not say that Ukraine be compelled to cede territory, given the ground situation, halting the war anytime in 2024 would simply freeze the situation resulting in the loss of large areas of eastern and southern Ukraine to Russia.
The plan would essentially call for a ceasefire along existing lines. While the authors of the plan do not say that Ukraine be compelled to cede territory, given the ground situation, halting the war anytime in 2024 would simply freeze the situation resulting in the loss of large areas of eastern and southern Ukraine to Russia.
In mid-June, President Putin said that if Kyiv abandoned plans to join NATO and handed over four eastern and southern provinces which have been annexed by Russia, he would end the war.
On the other hand, President Volodymyr Zelensky has made it clear repeatedly that he would not negotiate with Moscow unless it committed to leave the conquered territories, including Crimea.
In a campaign rally in mid-June, Trump attacked the scale of US support for Ukraine and said he would immediately “have that settled” if he came to power in November. He charged that Zelensky was “the greatest salesman of all times” referring to the US$60 billion aid that the US had provided Kyiv, a lot of which is actually going to fund American munition and equipment production. In a podcast interview last week he also appeared skeptical of creating a pathway for NATO membership for Ukraine.
Given the current state of fighting and plans, the Trump advisors’ plan would be tantamount to a surrender. The Russians may have stopped the Ukrainian summer offensive of 2023, but their counter-offensive, too, has been going nowhere.
The main focus of the current war involves the Ukrainian defence of Kharkiv. The Russian advance earlier this year left little distance between the Russian border and the city. So, even as Russian attacks intensify, Ukraine is trying to restore some of the depth to their defences.
At the end of last month, the Biden administration permitted Ukraine to use US weapons to attack some Russian targets but only near the Kharkiv region. This has had the dramatic effect of reducing missile attacks on Kharkiv from some 25 in May to zero this month. This is an outcome of the destruction or withdrawal of Russian S-300 and S-400 surface-to-air missile units fearing destruction from American-supplied munitions like HIMARS and ATACMS.
But broad US restrictions remain and this has not affected the Russian bombing campaign that is using their deadly UMPK glide bombs, inflicting great damage on the Ukraine military and civilians across the extensive front.
The actual front lines are dispersed and often thinly defended by both sides. This is because bombardment by air, artillery, and rockets can be very heavy and can saturate an area. Both sides like to minimise the number of soldiers that are exposed to the ever-present drones overhead. So, they keep just sufficient numbers forward as screening defences to maintain control of the territory and to launch occasional advances ranging from 0.1 to 2 km with the help of drones and artillery.
Ukraine is now set to receive US$ 50 billion in loans from the interest accumulated from the frozen Russian assets. This comes on top of the much-delayed US$ 61 billion in American assistance in April which will help boost Ukrainian artillery.
The Europeans and the Americans have sharply increased their artillery shell production. This is aimed at replenishing their own stocks as well as aiding Ukraine. An EU spokesman said that where the grouping produced 500,000 shells a year in March 2023, and one million by January 2024, it plans to increase to 1.4 million by the end of the year and 2 million by 2025.
As for the US, it is only now increasing its production following the passage of the US$60 billion aid package for Ukraine. Through this, it will be able to triple its monthly production of 155mm shells to 1.2 million shells by 2025.
Then there is the Czech initiative of February this year to source a million artillery shells for Ukraine from the global market. The first shipment of 180,000 shells was expected to be delivered this month and contracts had been signed for further tranches of shells that would be passed on to Ukraine.
As of now, Ukraine is firing 2,000 shells a day, while the Russians are firing three times that number There’s a report that North Korea sent 10,000 shipping containers to Russia that could perhaps hold up to 5 million shells. Ironically, pro-Russian Serbia has indirectly provided some US$855 million worth of Serbian-made ammunition to the US, Spain, and Czechia who have the freedom to pass it on to Ukraine.
As of now, Ukraine is firing 2,000 shells a day, while the Russians are firing three times that number There’s a report that North Korea sent 10,000 shipping containers to Russia that could perhaps hold up to 5 million shells.
However, the major Russian advantage has been in its Electronic Warfare (EW) systems which have disrupted Ukrainian air defences. This forced the Ukrainians to pull back their air defence systems from the front and enabled the Russian glide bomb attacks that were devastating for the Ukrainians.
Perhaps the most significant issue will be that Ukraine will begin receiving US F-16s in the coming months. These integrated with the US missiles and guided munitions will be able to overcome some of the problems the Ukrainians face from Russian EW capabilities. In the interim, to assist air defence, the US has taken the decision to push their allies to commit Patriot batteries for Ukraine as well as let it be known that the US was prioritising the supply of Patriot missiles to Ukraine ahead of existing commitments for allies.
Another plus factor for Ukraine has been the selection of Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte as the next Secretary General of NATO. A highly respected Prime Minister, he is known to be a strong supporter of Ukraine within the EU. Under his leadership, the Dutch have increased their defence spending above the 2 percent threshold and also committed themselves to provide F-16 aircraft as well ammunition and drones to Ukraine.
Other European countries are also chipping in. France will train 26 Ukrainian pilots by the end of the year. They will be trained through various stages in the UK, France, and Romania to fly Mirage-5 of F-16s.
Indirect help is also coming from South Korea whose policy prohibits aiding warring countries. What it has done is provide 155 mm ammunition to the US to enable the Americans to send their stocks onward to Ukraine. The North Korea-Russia pact may lead South Korea to alter its policy and supply arms directly to Kyiv.
The Europeans are also undertaking direct steps to shore up their military situation which has implications direct and indirect for Ukraine. Defence spending by NATO members has increased taking most of the membership over the 2 percent threshold.
Nevertheless, there are huge challenges for Ukraine over the horizon. Both Ukraine and its Western partners realise that to take on Russia would require huge financial, military, and human resource commitments.
Nevertheless, there are huge challenges for Ukraine over the horizon. Both Ukraine and its Western partners realise that to take on Russia would require huge financial, military, and human resource commitments.
In the meantime, some moves will provide sinews to the effort. There are indirect moves like the initiation of negotiations between Ukraine and the EU over the former’s membership. The eventuality may be years away, but the onset of negotiations is a morale booster for Zelensky and Ukraine. As for membership of NATO that is probably further away.
Another indirect support move was the Ukraine Peace Summit in Switzerland. Without Russia or China, it did not have any tangible outcome. But the attendance of some 90 countries was, again, a boost of morale for Kyiv though only 84 signed the final communique. Saudi Arabia, India, and South Africa abstained. Significantly, on the eve of the summit, Putin had put forward his peace plan which was, as noted, tantamount to a Ukrainian surrender. It found little traction in the proceedings of the Summit.
Whether it is arms or money. Ukraine needs much more help. While in artillery, aid is shaping up to meet Ukrainian requirements, there are shortfalls elsewhere and patchwork fixes don’t quite work. The US allies and some Democrats want Biden to remove all restrictions on US-provided weapons.
Given the level of fighting which is essentially stalemated, and the lack of outcome of the Swiss Peace Summit, there is little chance that we will see peace in Ukraine in 2024. The Russians remain relentless and have the wherewithal to continue fighting. The Western aid to Ukraine remains something of a patchwork quilt but it is becoming more regular and consistent.
However, there is the possibility of a Black Swan event arising from the election of Donald Trump as the US President in November which could change this trend.
Manoj Joshi is a Distinguished Fellow at the Observer Research Foundation.
The views expressed above belong to the author(s). ORF research and analyses now available on Telegram! Click here to access our curated content — blogs, longforms and interviews.
Manoj Joshi is a Distinguished Fellow at the ORF. He has been a journalist specialising on national and international politics and is a commentator and ...
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