Image Source: Getty
Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to the United States last month came at a time of growing flux and changing strategic equations marked by President Donald Trump’s entry into the White House for his second term. The two leaders have enjoyed a famed bon homie that has significantly advanced the ties between New Delhi and Washington. During Trump’s first tenure in office, India and the US made critical progress in building synergies in the Indo-Pacific. While the US has historically remained deeply invested in the geopolitical and security architecture of the Indo-Pacific, the rise of China has mandated Washington to seek closer ties with New Delhi. As for India, it has increasingly focused on the Indo-Pacific as a crucial arena to secure its geopolitical interests. Prime Minister Modi’s visit to the US was reassuring for continued US commitments to the Indo-Pacific in many ways. First, amidst everything else which comprises Trump’s agenda today—resolving the two ongoing wars and focusing on domestic issues such as immigration—his administration prioritised two leading Indo-Pacific countries, Japan and India, for bilateral meetings. Second, the Quad Foreign Ministers’ meeting, which was held just a day after Trump’s inauguration, signaled strong will for a continued robust regional security focus. Third, the US-China competition will remain the guiding force in shaping the US’ role abroad.
Even as the joint statement between the two leaders reinforced continuity in the idea of a bilateral commitment to Indo-Pacific security, the Trump administration’s approach could be different from the past. A broad sense of expanded expectations from its allies will be a key theme underlying the method of the current Trump administration. In the Indo-Pacific, this is likely to play out differently in the case of allies, friends and partners in the region and the two sides of the Strait of Malacca. The Pacific theatre remains a region likely to be tied much more closely to the possibility of conflict and intense great power conflict. On the other hand, the Indian Ocean will form the second layer of human and regional security backed by connectivity projects, Humanitarian Assistance and Disaster Relief (HADR), Search and Rescue (SAR) and Intelligence, Surveillance and Reconnaissance (ISR).
The Pacific theatre remains a region likely to be tied much more closely to the possibility of conflict and intense great power conflict.
The Autonomous Systems Industry Alliance (ASIA) initiative announced in the joint statement to augment industry partnerships and coproduction is at the heart of achieving this secondary layer of regional security in the Indian Ocean. The co-development and coproduction of state-of-the-art maritime systems and advanced Artifical Intelligence-enabled counter Unmanned Aerial System (UAS) and towed array sonars, which are low frequency systems used in Anti-submarine warfare (ASW) and for gathering information, are geared to boost regional security in the Indian Ocean and the larger Indo-Pacific. Furthermore, the US-India Transforming the Relationship Utilising Strategic Technology (TRUST) initiative is envisaged to build an ecosystem of trustworthy and resilient supply chains for key areas such as semiconductors, critical minerals, advanced materials, and pharmaceuticals.
While geopolitical synergy between India and the US has witnessed continued momentum, some strategic divergences have persisted with regard to the policy outlooks of New Delhi and Washington towards the Indian Ocean region. For India, the Indian Ocean remains central to its security thinking in the Indo-Pacific, whereas, for the US, Indo-Pacific security has entailed significant focus on critical theatres such as the Taiwan Strait and the South China Sea. While the US continues to direct strategic attention towards the Indian Ocean under the broader Indo-Pacific rubric, the Western Indian Ocean remains beyond the geographical remit of the INDOPACOM (US Indo-Pacific Command).
The connectivity agenda in the Indian Ocean appears to have received a boost with the announcement of a multi-billion, multi-year investment in an undersea cable project, providing fillip to the digital connectivity architecture in the region.
What appears to have stood out in the joint statement, however, was the unusual reference towards the Indian Ocean. During the recent meeting between Prime Minister Modi and President Trump, a new initiative – the Indian Ocean Strategic Venture – was announced. This new initiative seeks to emerge as a whole-of-government forum to advance coordinated investments in economic connectivity and commerce in the Indian Ocean. Furthermore, the connectivity agenda in the Indian Ocean appears to have received a boost with the announcement of a multi-billion, multi-year investment in an undersea cable project, providing fillip to the digital connectivity architecture in the region.
A slew of other new initiatives during the recent visit of Prime Minister Modi to the US marks a promising resumption of India-US ties under Modi and Trump. The emphasis on the Indian Ocean in basing new connectivity plans departs from the erstwhile lack of meaningful synergy between New Delhi and Washington in the region. While greater economic and digital connectivity remains crucial for the two countries, it is vital to usher in a new outlook towards strengthening collaboration and cooperation for a robust security partnership in the Indian Ocean.
This growing priority accorded to the Indian Ocean reflects the increasing consensus between India and the US about the region’s strategic importance within the broader Indo-Pacific. The recent bilateral meeting between the leaders of India and the US seems to suggest that connectivity is likely to anchor the future of the growing maritime partnership between India and the US. The two countries must direct their focus on the security imperative. The Indian Ocean security architecture remains volatile due to wide-ranging threats emanating from China’s creeping advances in the region by way of expanding its footprint through sending research vessels into the Indian Ocean and by expanding its political influence among Indian Ocean littoral states. Furthermore, increasing instances of piracy and maritime terrorism in the Western Indian Ocean continue to pose threats to efforts of enhancing connectivity in the region.
The recent bilateral meeting between the leaders of India and the US seems to suggest that connectivity is likely to anchor the future of the growing maritime partnership between India and the US.
The Modi-Trump meeting announced a plan to invest ‘in the critical infrastructure and economic corridors to advancing peace and security’ in the Indo-Pacific region. The Indian Ocean, which straddles the Middle East region and the Pacific theatre in the east, two areas the US under the second administration seeks to reorient its positioning, will be at the centre of that plan. As India and the US look to work on a transregional connectivity project by convening partners from the India-Middle East-Europe Corridor and the I2U2 (India, Israel, United Arab Emirates, and US) Group in the next six months, India’s engagements in the Indian Ocean are likely to get wider and more sophisticated. Being mindful of both its short-term and long-term goals in the region is important for India even as it partners with the US. As the largest resident player, while balancing interests and sensitivities in the region remain key for India, it is perhaps equally important to leverage its position in weaving the region with adjacent domains in its pursuit to connect the greater Indian Ocean through digital highways and usher private investments.
Sayantan Haldar is a Research Assistant at the Observer Research Foundation’s Strategic Studies Programme.
Vivek Mishra is a Deputy Director at the Observer Research Foundation’s Strategic Studies Programme.
The views expressed above belong to the author(s). ORF research and analyses now available on Telegram! Click here to access our curated content — blogs, longforms and interviews.
PREV
