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As quantum computing advances, the encryption shielding nuclear systems could collapse, forcing urgent upgrades to our global defence architecture
Image Source: Getty
In today’s digitised world, the security of our most sensitive and vital systems has never been more crucial. Nuclear security stands at the apex, where the safety and control of weapons and materials must be unassailable. Yet, a quiet revolution is brewing that could render the foundational pillars of our defence infrastructure obsolete. The culprit? Quantum computing. As we stand on the precipice of this new computing frontier, we must confront a chilling truth: quantum technologies are poised to dismantle the very cryptographic systems that protect communication, security, and global information networks.
Quantum computing leverages the principles of quantum mechanics to process information in ways traditional computers are not equipped to. At the heart of quantum computing are qubits that can exist simultaneously in multiple states due to a property known as superposition. Unlike classical bits, which are restricted to being 0 or 1, qubits can represent both values at once. This implies it can exist in a superposition of both states simultaneously.
At the heart of quantum computing are qubits that can exist simultaneously in multiple states due to a property known as superposition.
Another crucial aspect is entanglement, where qubits become interconnected to the point that the state of one may instantly alter the state of another, regardless of the distance separating them. This distinct behaviour allows quantum computers to traverse enormous computational domains and tackle tasks that classical systems struggle with, such as factoring large numbers or simulating molecular interactions.
As of 2025, quantum technology has matured significantly. Notable strides have been made in addressing long-standing challenges such as scalability and error correction; the technological viability of these is advancing rapidly—companies like Google, IBM, and Microsoft are leading the way. Google's "Willow" quantum processor has demonstrated improved error correction capabilities, paving the way for large-scale quantum systems, while Microsoft's “Majorana 1” processor, powered by topological qubits, promises greater stability and reduced error rates—both essential for real-world applications.
The promise of higher computing power could spell disaster for the cryptographic networks that protect nuclear command and control systems. Unlike traditional computers, which struggle with complex mathematical problems like factoring large numbers, quantum computers can breeze through these tasks in seconds. And therein lies the danger.
Modern communication encryption algorithms rely heavily on asymmetric encryption algorithms, such as Rivest-Shamir-Adleman (RSA), Elliptic Curve Cryptography (ECC), and Diffie-Hellman, which form the backbone of today’s cybersecurity frameworks. These are based on the premise that factoring large numbers or solving discrete logarithm problems is computationally impractical for classical computers.
The promise of higher computing power could spell disaster for the cryptographic networks that protect nuclear command and control systems.
For example, RSA encryption uses keys in the hundreds of digits, with some, like 2048-bit RSA, involving 617-digit long integers. Even the most modern supercomputers may take millions of years to break such encryption. However, quantum computers are on the verge of making these cryptography safety nets useless. Quantum algorithms like Shor's algorithm particularly threaten the RSA encryption standard by enabling quantum computers to factor large numbers exponentially faster, reducing RSA decryption time from millennia into mere seconds..
Perhaps the most insidious prospect of quantum computing’s potential to break encryption is the concept of ‘store now, decrypt later’. In today’s world, encrypted communications—whether involving military strategies, intelligence operations, or sensitive diplomatic discussions—are widely regarded as secure and shielded from unauthorised access. But, as quantum computing advances, it threatens to dismantle this security shield, enabling malicious actors to decrypt data long after it was initially encrypted. Intelligence obtained today could be stored and decrypted in the future, while information deemed secure now could be weaponised later, leaving everything from defence strategies to confidential diplomatic negotiations and classified government secrets exposed.
Cryptographic mechanisms employed in PALs might involve systems where keys are used to encrypt sensitive information, including the timing data necessary for weapon detonation, and using cryptography to encrypt all firing sequence data, making it extremely difficult for an unauthorised user to manipulate the weapon.
Furthermore, critical nuclear access control mechanisms—such as the Permissive Action Links (PALs) ensuring only authorised state personnel can arm nuclear weapons—could also be compromised. Cryptographic mechanisms employed in PALs might involve systems where keys are used to encrypt sensitive information, including the timing data necessary for weapon detonation, and using cryptography to encrypt all firing sequence data, making it extremely difficult for an unauthorised user to manipulate the weapon. However, with the rise of quantum computing, cryptographic safeguards could be easily bypassed by quantum-enabled decryption, enabling rogue actors to gain access to weapons they otherwise could not, raising the risk of unauthorised access scenarios, including potential foreign capture or sabotage.
Contrary to popular belief, the age of quantum computing is rapidly approaching. While large-scale quantum computers capable of breaking classical encryption will require millions of physical qubits and are still at least a decade away, the threat is already present due to the ‘store now, decrypt later’ caveat. Adversaries can intercept and store encrypted data today, waiting until quantum capabilities advance enough to decrypt it. These looming consequences are already forcing the cybersecurity community to rethink its strategies. Governments and industries must begin their transition to Post-Quantum Cryptography (PQC) solutions and ensure that sensitive data remains secure even against future quantum attacks.
A comprehensive strategy to address this issue is essential, and the author proposes a five-pronged approach. First, a transition to PQC is a must. The government should work on developing its standards, much like other countries. Meanwhile, it must urgently adopt the encryption standards established under NIST’s post-quantum cryptography programme, designed to remain secure even in the face of quantum computing advancements. Second, the development of indigenous Quantum Cryptography Networks. As part of India’s strategic self-reliance, it must implement both software solutions and hardware-integrated systems designed to secure sensitive data against quantum threats. Under the National Quantum Mission (NQM), Quantum Key Distribution (QKD) is already an objective. Nonetheless, it should be prioritised in light of the growing threats posed by quantum computing. QKD protocols leverage quantum mechanics to ensure tamper-proof encryption, enabling secure communication channels that remain immune even in the face of the most advanced quantum attacks. Given the urgency of quantum-resistant security measures, accelerating the deployment of QKD should be a key priority under NQM.
Blockchain technology’s tamper-proof nature provides an ideal solution for securing records related to defence communications, nuclear material transactions and safeguarding critical supply chains.
Additionally, safeguarding current high-level information requires the implementation of Dual-Layer Security Systems, where classical encryption algorithms run alongside quantum-resistant algorithms. While this approach offers resilience, ensuring that if quantum computing compromises traditional encryption, the second layer remains intact, it also introduces challenges, such as an increased attack surface and implementation complexities. As a result, there is an ongoing debate about whether this is the most effective strategy, highlighting the need for careful evaluation and adaptation of security frameworks. Furthermore, the integration of quantum-safe blockchain frameworks is crucial in the context of national security. Blockchain technology’s tamper-proof nature provides an ideal solution for securing records related to defence communications, nuclear material transactions and safeguarding critical supply chains. Implementing these frameworks will ensure that records remain immutable, even in the quantum computing era.
Finally, adopting early detection mechanisms is critical. By catalysing research and development (R&D) in quantum technology under NQM, India can detect breakthroughs in quantum computing before they reach critical thresholds. Governments and private sectors must collaborate to create frameworks for monitoring emerging quantum technologies and assessing their implications for national security.
The quantum computing revolution is not a distant prospect—it is a present-day reality that demands immediate action. The risks posed by quantum technologies to nuclear security, defence strategies, and global communications are as real as they are intensifying. Governments, industries, and researchers must work together to transition to post-quantum cryptographic standards, integrate quantum-resistant solutions, and develop robust security frameworks capable of withstanding the quantum threat. The sophistication of strategic communication networks and cryptography, like PAL, and its integration with PQC are intended to prevent the wide-ranging risks of unauthorised access scenarios.
The question is no longer if quantum computing will break current encryption methods—it is a matter of when. The future of global security depends on how serious the preparations are for this inevitable technological leap.
Kavya Wadhwa is a nuclear energy advocate and policy analyst dedicated to promoting sustainable energy solutions and driving policy reforms.
The views expressed above belong to the author(s). ORF research and analyses now available on Telegram! Click here to access our curated content — blogs, longforms and interviews.
Kavya Wadhwa is a nuclear energy advocate and policy analyst dedicated to promoting sustainable energy solutions and driving policy reforms. His research primarily focuses on ...
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