India’s Copper Industry: A Case for Strategic Expansion

Image Source: Getty

The global shift towards renewable energies and advanced technologies has driven unprecedented growth in copper demand, pushing it to the centre of a looming supply crunch. Even with increased recycling, copper supply is likely to fall 1.7 percent short of global demand by 2035. This shortage will affect a wide range of industries in which copper is an essential input, including solar panels, turbines, electricity grids, semiconductors, undersea cables, and munitions. Supply chain disruptions would affect energy security, defence capabilities, and infrastructure and technological development, making it a critical matter of national security. However, India is currently not self-sufficient in terms of its copper supply. Domestic ore production in 2023-24 was 3.78 million tonnes, 8 percent lower than in 2018-19. Copper is a deep-seated mineral, which makes it more difficult and expensive to explore and mine as compared to surficial or bulk minerals. India must, therefore, develop a strategy to build a resilient copper supply chain that meets its growing needs by optimising various stages of the supply chain.

Copper is a deep-seated mineral, which makes it more difficult and expensive to explore and mine as compared to surficial or bulk minerals.

The Copper Supply Chain

The copper supply chain begins with mining (either open-pit or underground mining) for primary copper production, followed by smelting and refining. This is followed by the semi-fabrication process, during which tubes, wires, rods and other preliminary pieces of equipment are made from copper and scrap.

Several parts of this supply chain are geographically concentrated. Chile, Peru and Australia accounted for 19 percent, 12 percent, and 10 percent of the world’s copper reserves in 2024, respectively. China accounts for approximately half of the world’s supply of refined copper. It is also expected to bring new smelting and refining capacity online in 2025, which has led to concerns among smelters in other parts of the world as they attempt to compete with lower Chinese prices.

Table 1: Countries with the Largest Copper Reserves

Source: United States Geological Survey’s Copper Mineral Commodity Summaries 2025

Note: Reserves data is dynamic on account of mining, new discoveries and sources used for calculation

Table 2: Countries with the Highest Refinery Production of Copper (as in 2024)

Source: United States Geological Survey’s Copper Mineral Commodity Summaries 2025

The Geopolitical Imperative

Copper's increasing strategic importance is evidenced by growing state and private sector investments in the mineral. Of these, China's investments along the copper supply chain are the most evident, especially in Africa. China’s JCHX Mining acquired an 80 percent stake in the Lubambe mine in Zambia, and China is reportedly planning to invest another 5 billion dollars in copper production in Zambia by 2031. A similar trajectory is seen in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), where exports of refined copper to China rose 71 percent on a year-on-year basis in 2024. The UK recently approved a loan to one of the largest copper producers in Central Asia, Almalyk, through UK Export Finance. This loan is presumably aimed at building a copper foothold in Uzbekistan. The UK is also set to sign a critical minerals partnership with Saudi Arabia. This move is consequential, given that Saudi Arabia is planning to focus more attention on its largely untapped mineral reserves, which include copper. Japan is planning to increase the cap on the stake its government can hold in copper mines. This is aimed at encouraging investment by the private sector, particularly in the case of projects that have higher associated risks, such as those in Africa. Sumitomo, a Japanese conglomerate, has invested in six mines across the world, including Morenci in the US and Cerro Verde in Peru. In 2024, it reached an agreement with Rio Tinto to obtain a 30% stake in the Winu Project, aimed at developing a copper-gold project in Western Australia. As countries seek to improve self-sufficiency in copper, boosts in production have also been scheduled. For instance, Australian mining company, BHP, recently awarded an EPCM (engineering, procurement and construction management) contract to Fluor and Hatch for the expansion of a copper refining and smelting facility in South Australia. This intensification of global resource rivalries is not only an economic imperative but also an attempt to safeguard strategic autonomy.

The Landscape in India

India is no exception to the global rise in demand for copper. Policies such as Atmanirbhar Bharat, Make in India, Faster Adoption and Manufacturing of (Hybrid &) Electric Vehicles, and the Smart Cities Mission have contributed to India’s copper demand increasing by 13% to reach 1,700 kilotonnes in FY24. Given its significance, copper was added to India’s critical minerals list in 2023 and is supported by the National Critical Mineral Mission (NCMM), which aims to strengthen the country's resource security.

Despite having significant copper ore deposits in the country, India is still reliant on imports to meet its demand. India has 1.66 billion tonnes of copper ore resources. However, only 9.87 percent (163.89 million tonnes) of these are classed as reserves, i.e., deposits that are economically viable to mine, and are mainly located in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Jharkhand. There are also no high-grade reserves (reserves with a copper grade of 1.85 percent or more). Consequently, India imported raw copper ores and concentrates worth US$ 3.3 billion in FY23, largely from Chile, Indonesia, Australia, and Peru. This value was higher than the import of lithium, manganese, nickel, and silicon combined.

The Ministry of Mines has introduced a new mineral concession, called an Exploration Licence, for the reconnaissance and prospecting of operations for critical and deep-seated minerals.

To mitigate this, the Indian government has secured exploration rights for greenfield land in Zambia, which it hopes to convert into mining rights. Additionally, the Ministry of Mines has introduced a new mineral concession, called an Exploration Licence, for the reconnaissance and prospecting of operations for critical and deep-seated minerals. Companies like JSW have also begun plans to expand mining. Despite these initiatives, the global average lead time on mines is 17.9 years. This poses a significant challenge to rapidly scaling copper production to meet rising demand.

The Indian copper refining landscape is currently at an inflection point. Historically, companies like Hindustan Copper Limited and Hindalco Industries have been key players in the sector with refineries in Ghatsila, Jharkhand, and Dahej, Gujarat, respectively. Vedanta's Sterlite Copper plant in Thoothukudi, Tamil Nadu, produced 40 percent of India’s copper till its closure in 2018 due to environmental concerns. This led to a significant reduction in domestic refining capacity and turned India into a net importer of refined copper. India has begun developing projects to build a refining ecosystem, as listed below.  Although increasing refining capacity will lead to self-sufficiency, supply constraints will persist due to resource exhaustion in existing mines, diminishing grades, and limited discoveries.

Table 3: Recent Investments in India's Copper Ecosystem

Further, almost 38 percent of India's copper demand is met through recycled scrap, sourced both domestically and through imports. In 2024, the Central Government proposed a mandate on recycled content in non-ferrous metal products, starting with a proportion of 5 percent for copper in FY28 and increasing to 20% by FY31. However, the collection of scrap is largely done by the unorganised sector, which leads to a lack of precise data and variable copper purity due to the use of diverse scrap types. Meeting domestic demand while supporting a circular economy is an important step for India, but it requires policy incentives to enhance resource recovery.

Policy Recommendations

There is strong precedent for incorporating copper security into policymaking in India. With foundational blocks like the NCMM in place, India must prioritise three key areas for copper security.

First, as India builds its copper refining industry, securing greater access to copper ore through partnerships will be vital. In addition to the exploration plans in Africa, India should explore mining opportunities in regions such as South America, Central Asia and Oceania. India has existing partnerships that it can expand and leverage to expand mining. For instance, India and Argentina have an MoU for lithium exploration and mining investment. India and Australia also have existing partnerships related to critical minerals. These relationships can be leveraged to build partnerships for copper mining as well. Securing access through mining abroad is the primary need of the coming decades.

Strengthening formal recycling networks and enforcing e-waste management regulations will also help with minimising resource depletion.

Second, copper recycling efficiency is critical for meeting sustainability goals. Investing in research in advanced recycling technologies, such as hydrometallurgical refining, can enhance efficiency and reduce environmental impact. Strengthening formal recycling networks and enforcing e-waste management regulations will also help with minimising resource depletion.

Third, India needs to boost innovation in the copper industry. This could be done by utilising emerging technologies like machine learning-driven process optimisation, and by supporting startups that specialise in advanced exploration, efficient extraction, and sustainable processing. The adoption of new extraction techniques like sulfide leaching and coarse particle recovery can improve cost-effective extraction from low-grade ores while reducing water and energy consumption.

By proactively investing in supply resilience, circular economy practices, and technological innovation, India can future-proof its copper value chain. This will not only ensure long-term copper security but also position India as a key player in the global critical minerals landscape.

Amoha Basrur is a Junior Fellow with the Centre for Security Strategy and Technology at the Observer Research Foundation.

Pranjali Goradia is a Research Intern at the Observer Research Foundation

• Developing and Emerging Economies
• India
• copper demand in india
• copper industry in india
• copper refining in india
• copper reserves in india
• copper supply chain in india
• countries with largest copper reserves
• indian copper industry
• national critical mineral mission
• strategic importance of copper

The views expressed above belong to the author(s). ORF research and analyses now available on Telegram! Click here to access our curated content — blogs, longforms and interviews.

PREV NEXT