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In an era marked by escalating threats from extremist groups, China's counterterrorism strategy has undergone a significant transformation. A stark reminder of this urgency was the suicide bombing in October 2024 that resulted in the deaths of two Chinese workers in Pakistan. This incident highlighted the vulnerability of Chinese nationals involved in critical infrastructure projects abroad. To counter such incidents, China and Pakistan conducted the joint military exercise Warrior-VIII from late November to mid-December 2024, enhancing their counterterrorism collaboration. This exercise was not only a show of military strength but also a strategic maneuver to address the growing influence of Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), which has increasingly targeted Chinese nationals working under the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). As tensions rise between Pakistan and Afghanistan, these dynamics significantly affect China's counterterrorism methods, compelling Beijing to adapt its strategies through a combination of domestic security measures, regional diplomacy, and multilateral partnerships.
China and Pakistan conducted the joint military exercise Warrior-VIII from late November to mid-December 2024, enhancing their counterterrorism collaboration.
Xinjiang's domestic security landscape
China's approach to counterterrorism is heavily influenced by its domestic policies, particularly in Xinjiang, where the government has implemented sweeping measures to combat groups like the East Turkestan Islamic Movement (ETIM) and other separatist Uyghur factions. Founded by Uyghur militants, the ETIM has been linked to various terrorist activities, including bombings, assassinations, and assaults on government officials and civilians. These acts have contributed to a narrative of ongoing instability, contributing to a narrative of widespread unrest in the region.
In response to these threats, China has justified a series of stringent counterterrorism measures in Xinjiang, notably heightening surveillance and police presence. Advanced technologies like artificial intelligence and biometric data collection have been employed to monitor the movements and behaviors of individuals. This comprehensive surveillance network was designed not only to monitor but also to identify signs of extremism before they escalate into violence, reflecting China’s proactive rather than reactive stance on security. Furthermore, “re-education” programmes aimed at ideological transformation have become an integral part of the broader security framework.
Advanced technologies like artificial intelligence and biometric data collection have been employed to monitor the movements and behaviors of individuals.
The security measures in Xinjiang, while primarily focused on domestic concerns, also serve as a model for China’s broader international counterterrorism strategies. By employing advanced technologies such as facial recognition and artificial intelligence, Beijing seeks to build a comprehensive security apparatus capable of preemptively identifying and neutralising threats. This emphasis on preemptive action has shaped China's approach to rising external threats, highlighting how its domestic counterterrorism strategies are influencing its broader geopolitical strategies.
Rising threats in Pakistan
This resurgence of groups like the TTP in neighboring regions has directly threatened China’s national security interests. As Beijing increases its economic investment in Pakistan, particularly through large-scale infrastructure projects across the region, the security of these investments has become paramount. The TTP, due to ideological opposition to the state and driven by resentment towards foreign exploitation of local resources, has increasingly targeted Chinese nationals working on these projects. This has led to heightened security concerns in Beijing. Alongside the TTP, other armed militant groups, such as the Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA), have claimed responsibility for attacks against Chinese nationals, alleging that CPEC initiatives have marginalized the local Baloch communities and exploited regional resources. The following table provides an overview of major attacks carried out against Chinese personnel in Pakistan.
Source: Author’s compilation
These developments have made Pakistan's relationship with China deeply intertwined in its counterterrorism strategy. As attacks on Chinese workers have escalated, Pakistan has been compelled to bolster its counterterrorism efforts, deploying additional military resources and enhancing security protocols around Chinese investments. The number of terrorist attacks against Chinese nationals reportedly surged by two-thirds between 2022 and 2023. In response, Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif announced a new counterterrorism strategy focusing on strengthening existing intelligence-based operations rather than launching new military offensives. This approach not only aligns with China's policies in Xinjiang but also reflects the current political climate in Pakistan, which aims to restore public confidence in the military following a prolonged period of internal strife.
Taliban governance: A double-edged sword?
The ongoing tensions between Pakistan and Afghanistan further complicate China’s counterterrorism efforts. Since the Taliban’s return to power in 2021, the group has been reluctant to act against organisations like TTP operating from Afghan territory. This has placed Beijing in a delicate position, balancing its diplomatic relationships in the region while addressing security threats that could undermine its strategic interests.
China has sought to leverage its economic influence over the Taliban, particularly through initiatives like the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), aiming to tap into Afghanistan’s vast natural resource wealth This influx of Chinese capital -spanning sectors like mining and infrastructure- are crucial not only for China but also for the Taliban, which seeks international legitimacy by proving its ability to govern effectively. However, despite economic incentives, the core of China's strategy in Afghanistan is driven by defensive interests. By offering investment opportunities, China hopes to incentivize the Taliban to take stronger action against groups like the TTP, thereby protecting its own needs.
China’s strategic interests are at risk if Afghanistan becomes a haven for militant groups, further destabilizing the region.
This security focus is critical as China looks to protect its national interests amid rising insecurity along its borders. Recent military confrontations between Pakistan and Afghanistan, including airstrikes aimed at TTP positions in Afghanistan, have sparked strong protests from the Taliban, which accuses Pakistan of causing civilian casualties during these operations. As relations between Pakistan and Afghanistan deteriorate, it heightens China’s concerns about the stability of its investments, particularly as rising violence threatens to undermine key projects like CPEC. Furthermore, China’s strategic interests are at risk if Afghanistan becomes a haven for militant groups, further destabilizing the region.
Way forward: China’s dual strategy
The evolving dynamics of counterterrorism in China, especially regarding the ETIM and TTP, underscore a complex interplay of domestic and regional security challenges. The U.S. decision to delist ETIM from its list of terrorist organisation heightened China's vigilance, prompting an even more stringent approach to countering perceived threats. Domestically, China's heavy-handed security measures in Xinjiang reflect broader counterterrorism policies that extend to its approach to Afghanistan and the Taliban regime. While the Taliban's stated commitment to preventing Afghanistan from serving as a base for separatist militants is important, it is undermined by their fragmented authority and the entrenched presence of various terrorist groups. Furthermore, their limited resources and internal divisions hinder effective counterterrorism efforts, complicating their ability to enforce centralised control over militant activities.
China's heavy-handed security measures in Xinjiang reflect broader counterterrorism policies that extend to its approach to Afghanistan and the Taliban regime.
As tensions between Pakistan and Afghanistan rise, driven by TTP activities and retaliatory measures, China's role as a mediator becomes critical. This highlights the necessity for adaptive, multi-faceted strategies that balance security concerns with geopolitical considerations. The ongoing US-China rivalry over counterterrorism narratives, under the return of the Trump administration, will further shape regional stability and global security dynamics. Moving forward, China's counterterrorism strategies are likely to remain fluid—balancing immediate security needs against long-term economic ambitions as it aims to assert itself as a key player in shaping the future of international security.
Mallaika Thapar is a Research Intern at the Observer Research Foundation
Shivam Shekhawat is a Junior Fellow at the Observer Research Foundation
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