The first direct showdown between Biden and Trump in 2024 demands attention as it will set the tone for the presidential campaign.
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In a presidential election year, the United States (US) faces a formidable set of challenges with sharp domestic political polarisation, economic inequality, involvement in theatres of conflict in Ukraine and Gaza, persistent inflationary pressure, and the race for clean energy transition. It is against this backdrop that the first round of the presidential candidate debate opened on 27 June between the incumbent Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump. Hosted by CNN in Atlanta, the June iteration of the debate is unique in terms of its earliest opening in the history of televised presidential debates in the US. In a bipartisan consensus, the non-profit Commission on Presidential Debates that used to manage the debate so far has been sidelined. To minimise the disruption, the new rules also include no in-person audience in the studio as well as the practice of muting the microphone of candidates to prevent out-of-turn interventions. Usually billed as a media spectacle that garners headlines and punchy one-liners, the television debate, nonetheless, forms a crucial part of the presidential election spectacle in the world’s oldest modern democracy.
Hosted by CNN in Atlanta, the June iteration of the debate is unique in terms of its earliest opening in the history of televised presidential debates in the US. In a bipartisan consensus, the non-profit Commission on Presidential Debates that used to manage the debate so far has been sidelined.
Political scientists have argued that the presidential debates do not hold a decisive sway over the final electoral outcome for a range of reasons. Most politically savvy and well-informed citizens who engage in the debate already make up their minds beforehand. The sensational impact of debate sessions also tends to be too short-lived to have a meaningful impact on the voting day. Usually, the two-party system in the US democracy cements partisanship that considerably lessens the proportion of swing voters open to persuasion. Nevertheless, the high degree of political polarisation and the resounding importance of a few thousand voters in the key swing states might make the Biden-Trump debate a key variable in the electoral contest.
The debate poses pressing challenges for both the candidates at personal and policy levels. While Trump has to deal with the New York court’s conviction in the hush money trial, Biden’s discomfiture stems from his son Hunter Biden’s conviction on felony gun charges. Further, Trump needs to counter uncomfortable queries on his character as well as the handling of the 6 January Capitol Hill riots in 2021. For Biden, the imperative is to repeat the impressive State of Union speech performance to dispel doubts about his physical and mental fitness for the most pressing job. While Biden prepares meticulously for the debate at the Camp David retreat, Trump also needs to avoid a repeat of the previous debate cycle debacle in 2020 where his disruptive debating style did not resonate with voters.
The debate poses pressing challenges for both the candidates at personal and policy levels. While Trump has to deal with New York court's conviction in the hush money trial, Biden's discomfiture stems from his son Hunter Biden's conviction on felony gun charges.
On policy count, economic issues and illegal immigration warrant more concern on the part of the incumbent President. Coupled with a retrospective increase in the positive assessment of Trump’s economic performance, the wide sense of discontent with the Biden presidency spells big trouble for the Democratic presidential bid. The sharp increase in illegal immigration under Biden’s watch has also drawn the public ire. In a move to address voter concerns, the Biden administration recently issued executive decrees banning asylum for illegal migrants and providing citizenship to long-term residents married to US citizens. While the former move assuages the larger public concern, the latter is intended to benefit the Latino constituency.
The issue of foreign policy is also likely to feature in the debate. There exists a degree of bipartisan consensus on China, as underscored by the Biden administration’s continuation of many Trump-era policies. However, recently a slew of the Republican establishment members have criticised Biden for not being sufficiently tough on China. The Republican hawks have taken shots at the Biden administration’s diplomatic efforts at reassuring China. They’ve called for the “peace through strength” approach with higher defence spending that shores up the US military power and augments Asian allies’ deterrent capabilities.
The issue of foreign policy is also likely to feature in the debate. There exists a degree of bipartisan consensus on China, as underscored by the Biden administration’s continuation of many Trump-era policies.
The ascendant prioritiser wing in the Republican establishment might also spell trouble for Biden in the debate if Trump decides to embrace this grouping. The grouping, including Senator J D Vance and policy wonk Elbridge Colby, has argued for the US to shift its attention from the Ukraine war in the European theatre to the Indo-Pacific to counter China more effectively. Trump’s past prostration against US allies asking for more burden sharing means the allies would be paying attention to the debate for any hint of the upcoming Trump administration’s approach. Further, Biden might have to face tough questions on the botched withdrawal from Afghanistan and the continued US engagement in Ukraine.
In conclusion, the first direct stand-off between the presidential contenders in 2024 warrants closer attention for its ability to set the tenor of the ongoing campaign. The stakes remain high for the two sides in a deeply polarised environment with a relatively higher degree of voter discontent with both Trump and Biden. While consistency is hardly a Trumpian virtue, the debate might provide a window into his likely policy approach on the economy, foreign relations, climate change, immigration and domestic issues such as abortion and gun control. Trump will look to portray the state of the economy, increasing immigration, writing off student loans and increasing external aid to Ukraine under the Biden administration as potential attack points. Biden will look to underscore the democratic gains that the US has made since Trump left office including America’s image as a trustworthy nation for its allies and partners abroad. For Biden, the debate presents an opportunity to demonstrate his fitness and defend his policy record and build on his most recent poll gains, closing the gap with Trump. Given the attention the faceoff has received, a measured performance that avoids gaffes and mistakes would be the key going forward for both the sides.
Vivek Mishra is a Fellow at the Observer Research Foundation.
Sanjeet Kashyap is a Research Intern at the Observer Research Foundation.
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Vivek Mishra is a Fellow with ORF’s Strategic Studies Programme. His research interests include America in the Indian Ocean and Indo-Pacific and Asia-Pacific regions, particularly ...
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Sanjeet Kashyap is a Research Intern with the Strategic Studies Program at the Observer Research Foundation. He is also pursuing his PhD research on the ...
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