The emerging Indian-Armenian ties aim to forge geopolitical and geoeconomic pathways that align with their mutual interests and bolster strategic partnerships
Since 2020, changing regional power equations have impacted the security choices of Armenia, which is seeking to offset its vulnerability. Since independence, domestic politics, unresolved conflicts, and Russian ‘monopoly’ for the security deficit have led to a re-orientation in Armenia’s alliance trajectory towards multilateral partnerships and ‘hedging’ alliances. In this context of strategic analysis, the Iran-Armenia-Georgia corridor is a vital geoeconomic and geopolitical axis for India, Russia, the United States (US), the European Union (EU), and China. Herein, the Indian-Armenian strategic partnership can create a geopolitical and geoeconomic path in connecting the Indian Ocean to the Black Sea, i.e. India with Europe.
The prospective concept of 21st-century geopolitics connects the concepts of sea power, land power, AI power, and economic connectivity.
In this context, 21st-century geopolitics, in addition to political control over geographical space, is impacted by global economic interdependence, digital communication, and Artificial Intelligence (AI), which has challenged the geographical and geophysical limitations of traditional geopolitics, extending the possibilities of power projections beyond the traditional limitations. Therefore, the Mackinderian long-praised notion of Eurasian geopolitics, i.e. the importance of the “Heartland” as the pivot of influence on geopolitical realities, has been transforming due to AI technologies. This correlates with the present emergence of the South Caucasus as a strategic bridge between Europe and China, Europe and India, and Russia and India. In this regard, the most viable nations will be those that have vital access to the major sea and land trading routes as well as cyberspace. Thus, the prospective concept of 21st-century geopolitics connects the concepts of sea power, land power, AI power, and economic connectivity. At this critical juncture, nations are linked by cross-border approaches, based on global and interregional rather than local partnerships.
Contacts between the Indian subcontinent and the Armenian Highlands have a 4,000-year-old history, sustained through affinities of language, culture, heritage, and economic trade. The South Caucasus has historically been at the crossroads of West and East, North and South—an arena of clash for different civilisations and a concert of various great powers. The civilisational paradigm of the emerging world is evidenced by India, the Gulf Arabic states, and Iran, which have become modern societies without becoming Western. This is evidenced by international events such as Iran’s call for an alliance with India to influence international processes. According to the Regional Security Complex Theory, the borders between security regions are zones of weak interaction and are usually determined by geography, and security regions are composed of subsystems in which most of the security interaction is internal. Thus, states fear their neighbours and ally with other regional actors.
The South Caucasus has historically been at the crossroads of West and East, North and South—an arena of clash for different civilisations and a concert of various great powers.
Consequent to China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), India is charting new frontiers to stake its claim in the emerging multivectoral integration and cooperation processes, especially as a counterweight to China. In the wake of rising US independence in oil and gas, Russia’s role as the main provider of oil and gas to Europe is being challenged, drawing it closer to China and thereby supporting China’s geopolitical ambitions. In contrast to China’s geopolitical advantage in securing much-needed resources from the region, India remains vulnerable due to its dependence on marine shipping routes from Iran and the Gulf countries. India’s need to sustain petroleum sources, on which its developmental goals are founded, has resulted in its efforts at a dynamic counterbalance, evident in its ‘Link West’ policy. The International North-South Transport Corridor, linked with India’s crucial role in the development of the Chabahar port in Iran, is viewed as a game-changer in India’s strategic goals. In a geostrategic context, the Iran-Armenia-Georgia corridor has the potential to be a vital geoeconomic and geopolitical axis for India and the EU.
Therefore, the emerging Indian-Armenian strategic partnership presents an example of an emerging regional superpower allying with small power to enhance its strategic objectives within crucial geopolitical regional contexts. Armenia, a small state in a volatile neighbourhood, and India, an emergent global power, are in the process of establishing paths to complement mutual interests and enhance strategic partnerships considering the historical and cultural ties between the two nations and their mutual geostrategic advantages.
A major uncertainty in the grand and geopolitically fluid space of Eurasia is now being filled with competing geopolitical projects, Russia’s Eurasian integration project, China’s BRI, and India’s South-North initiative. Presently, the geopolitical and geoeconomic visage of Eurasia is undergoing an accelerating and fundamental transformation. For the first time since the beginning of the 16th century, the largest concentration of global economic power will be found neither in Europe nor in the Americas, but in Asia. Since the first decade of the 21st century, in India, there has been more optimism and a sense of the beginning of history. Analysing the deceleration of the West and the acceleration of the East, Kishore Mahbubani, the former President of the UNSC, suggests that, driven by the logic of one world and technology, an irreversible force, the East and West meet in the great convergence, “Because everything that rises must converge... Too many forces have been unleashed to shrink the world… The world will get smaller and smaller and more and more densely interconnected and interdependent.” Potentially, the South Caucasus can become an important touchpoint and a corridor of great continental convergence.
India’s need to sustain petroleum sources, on which its developmental goals are founded, has resulted in its efforts at a dynamic counterbalance, evident in its ‘Link West’ policy.
Although India and Armenia belong to different security regions, this might change as well. Barry Buzan and Ole Wӕver (2003) outline three possible evolutions to a regional security complex (RSC) in time: Preservation of the status quo; internal transformation within the RSC and changes to the anarchic structure or polarity on the grounds of regional integration or disintegration, conquest, or changes to the dominant patterns of amity/enmity because of ideological shifts; and external transformation by expansion or shrinks of the outer boundary, changing the membership of the RSC and transforming its essential structure. This happens when 2 RSCs merge or 2 RSCs split out from one. The merger of 2 RSCs might occur if a geoeconomically and geopolitically significant grand infrastructure is in place. In the case of a prospective North-South Transport Corridor connecting the Indian Ocean and the Persian Gulf to the Black Sea and India to Europe through Iran-Armenia-Georgia, India will become dramatically concerned with the processes in the South Caucasus and Eastern Europe. Then, we might analyse the possibility of a potential Indo-European supercomplex: A security supercomplex is defined as a set of RSCs comprising one or more great powers that generate relatively high and consistent levels of interregional security dynamics.
Since 2019, under the leadership of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, India has taken a more proactive diplomacy and ‘Link West’ approach, demonstrating more ambitious normative hedging. India has emerged as a frontline state in the emerging global power structure and has the potential to contribute tremendously towards sustainable peace and stability. The Russian support for the Chinese One Belt One Road initiative as well as the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) is also propelling India towards inclusive, non-bloc multi-vector partnerships in Eurasia. Remarkably, in March 2021, the Indian Ambassador to Iran, Gaddam Dharmendra, announced India’s intention to connect the Indian Ocean with Europe and Russia through the Iranian Chabahar port and Armenia, establishing a South-North Transport Corridor. The main geopolitical objective behind India’s geostrategic ambition is to bypass its rival Pakistan and, accordingly, the Pakistan-Azerbaijan-Türkiye axis.
The Russian support for the Chinese One Belt One Road initiative as well as the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) is also propelling India towards inclusive, non-bloc multi-vector partnerships in Eurasia.
The special relations with Iran will allow Armenia to diversify its energy supplies and position itself as a potential cluster in the prospective North-South geoeconomic corridor that would both unfold the European markets for India. As predicted by Mackinder, railways will continue to emerge as a key factor in the Eurasian geopolitics and geoeconomics. In this regard, a prospective Iranian-Armenian railroad has a huge potential to connect the Persian Gulf to the Black Sea and provide an alternative and shorter way of connecting India with Europe. This railway traversing Armenia will end its geographic isolation by connecting Armenia with Iran and India. Thus, a possible US-Iran rapprochement and Iran-Armenia-Georgia corridor ranging in a South-North direction will enable Armenia to overcome its insecurity and will create a more stabilising alignment for this crucial region.
Thus, there is a noticeable interregional level of security dynamics in the South Caucasus, which arises from the great power spillover into this sub-complex and the extremes of national and global security interplay at the regional level. In the context of the competing alternatives of Eurasian geopolitics, including China’s Belt and Road Initiative and Russia-led EAEU, greater engagement from India with its North-South Transport Corridor initiative has the potential to be a game-changer in Eurasia. For Armenia, effective simultaneous partnerships with the US and the EU, Iran, and India can help offset these vulnerabilities through transit geoeconomic and interregional engagement.
A possible US-Iran rapprochement and Iran-Armenia-Georgia corridor ranging in a South-North direction will enable Armenia to overcome its insecurity and will create a more stabilising alignment for this crucial region.
Whether the India-Armenia strategic partnership will change the wider regional security architecture, is conditioned on how significant the infrastructure of the prospective North-South Transport Corridor connecting the Indian Ocean and the Persian Gulf to the Black Sea and India to Europe through Iran-Armenia-Georgia will be. If the future corridor is geoeconomically and geopolitically grand enough, India will become dramatically concerned with the processes in the South Caucasus and Eastern Europe. Then, perhaps, we might analyse the possibility of a perceived Indo-European security supercomplex.
Tigran Yepremyan is the Dean of the Faculty of International Relations and an Associate Professor of World History and IR at the Yerevan State University, Armenia
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Tigran Yepremyan is the Dean of the Faculty of International Relations and an Associate Professor of World History and IR at the Yerevan State University, ...
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