The high voter turnout in Kashmir Valley prompts the question: Does this indicate a return to normalcy, or is a more complex reality unfolding?
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Source Image: NBC News
The voter turnout in the five Lok Sabha seats of the Union Territory of Jammu and Kashmir (J&K) stood at an impressive 58 percent, representing the highest poll participation in the last 35 years. Voting in the Kashmir Valley witnessed a remarkable 30-percent increase over the 2019 general elections tally. A record number of young people exercised their franchise, demonstrating growing confidence in the world's largest democracy.
After witnessing a high voter turnout and active youth participation, the Chief Election Commission of India is contemplating holding assembly elections to reinforce democracy in J&K.
After witnessing a high voter turnout and active youth participation, the Chief Election Commission of India is contemplating holding assembly elections to reinforce democracy in J&K. Despite the widespread belief that normalcy has returned to Kashmir, the voter turnout and the electoral outcome reveal a more intricate reality emerging in the Valley, largely driven by emotions and local socioeconomic issues.
Elections in J&K before 2019 saw boycott calls from separatists. Deserted polling booths and low turnouts due to fear of violence and stone pelting from separatists and their over-ground workers (OGWs) were a common sight. Pakistan’s covert support of terrorism and violence in the Kashmir Valley has historically kept Kashmiri voters away from the democratic process. For instance, the period around the 2017 by-elections to the Srinagar constituency recorded 200 incidents of violence in which eight people were killed. Consequently, the by-election registered a seven percent voter turnout, the lowest in 30 years. The violence also led to the postponement of the by-elections to the Anantnag parliamentary seat for two years. Similarly, in 2019, the combined voter turnout in three parliamentary constituencies in the Kashmir Valley was only 19.16 percent. Clashes between security forces and stone pelters led to zero voting in most polling booths in the restive south Kashmir areas.
However, the situation in the Kashmir Valley has changed significantly since the revocation of Articles 370 and 35A in August 2019. New security measures by the J&K Union Territory administration saw a drastic decrease in terrorism and related violence. With only 20 young individuals joining terrorist organisations, the number of locals joining terror outfits declined by 80 percent in 2023. However, nearly 70-80 active foreign terrorists are present in J&K, and security agencies need to devise a new counterterrorism strategy before the upcoming assembly elections. The recent terrorist attacks in the Jammu region and south of Pir Panjal over the last two years have created new security challenges, leading security agencies to focus more on countering foreign terrorism sponsored by Pakistan.
The situation in the Kashmir Valley has changed significantly since the revocation of Articles 370 and 35A in August 2019. New security measures by the J&K Union Territory administration saw a drastic decrease in terrorism and related violence.
Nonetheless, the significant improvement in the security environment particularly in Valley and the absence of stone-pelting and strikes by separatists has paved the way for the victory of ballots over bullets. The reducing influence of the separatist ideals and tougher anti-terrorist law has made the youth realise the importance of the democratic processes and the need to fill the political void with the representation of their own people —with whom they could resonate—in the government. Additionally, residents of the Valley felt that they lacked representation in the local administration, as bureaucrats who run the administration have become apathetic, and supremely powerful. Many people believe that Kashmiris are using their votes to express their discontent with the one-sided decisions made by New Delhi after 2019, especially regarding the region's socioeconomic development.
The voter turnout for the age group between 18-39 years in the three parliamentary seats of Baramulla, Srinagar, and Anantnag-Rajouri in the Kashmir Valley stood at 56.02 percent, 48.57 percent, and 54.41 percent, respectively. In the past three decades of militancy, the youth have finally recognised the urgency of addressing issues like combatting unemployment and fostering new opportunities. During the election, there was a surge in the participation of voters aged 18-39 in the Valley who voted against the BJP’s affiliated regional political parties. The Apni Party led by Altaf Bukhari and the Peoples Conference led by Sajad Lone are widely regarded as proxies of the BJP by the majority of the population in the Valley. The unpopular decisions made by New Delhi in 2019 were a major focus of the election campaign and led to increased participation of women in the elections. Despite this, they were satisfied with the peaceful atmosphere in the Valley and strongly hoped for it to continue."
In a refreshing change during the recent Lok Sabha elections, members of the banned Jammat-e-Islami (JeI) were actively involved in the voting process across all three constituencies of the Valley. JeI, a sociopolitical and religious organisation advocating separatism and directly challenging the Indian state, had been the focal point of the Kashmir conflict for several years. The panel head of JeI expressed their readiness to contest upcoming assembly elections under the Indian Constitution if the ban imposed on it was lifted.
The results of the Baramulla parliamentary seat in Kashmir surprised regional mainstream parties and New Delhi with the victory of Abdul Rashid Sheikh, commonly known as Engineer Rashid. Rashid, confined in Tihar Jail for the past five years under the Unlawful Activities Prevention Act (UAPA) on terror charges, clinched nearly 470,000 votes. He decisively defeated Omar Abdullah, the former Chief Minister, with a commanding margin of more than 200,000 votes. According to some journalists and Omar Abdullah, Rashid's victory will strengthen secessionists and reignite separatism. However, it is believed that Rashid was elected out of sympathy and determination. Rashid's campaign centred around seeking “revenge of jail with the vote.” Many supporters think this victory would ensure Rashid’s release and allow him to truly represent their genuine concerns in the Parliament.
The results of the Baramulla parliamentary seat in Kashmir surprised regional mainstream parties and New Delhi with the victory of Abdul Rashid Sheikh, commonly known as Engineer Rashid.
Elected in 2019 from the Baramulla Lok Sabah seat, National Conference’s Mohammad Akbar Lone hardly raised any local issues of unemployment, electricity, and infrastructure in the Parliament. Disenchantment with the ‘VIP’ culture associated with other contesting candidates like Omar Abdullah also motivated voters to vote for Rashid. Most importantly, the areas under the Baramulla parliamentary seat have been more peaceful than South Kashmir and Srinagar for the last 12 years. Rashid's rallies attracted ample youth support even in the areas known for election boycotts.
The people of the Kashmir Valley have actively opposed Pakistan-backed terrorism, violence, and separatism. However, negative emotions and a potentially pessimistic stance towards New Delhi were still reflected in the voter turnout and results, especially in the Baramulla seat. Nevertheless, the people eagerly yearn for normalcy, improved livelihoods, and greater political participation at the Union Territory (UT) level which New Delhi needs to capitalise on through political dialogue.
Ayjaz Wani is a Fellow in the Strategic Studies Programme at the Observer Research Foundation.
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Ayjaz Wani (Phd) is a Fellow in the Strategic Studies Programme at ORF. Based out of Mumbai, he tracks China’s relations with Central Asia, Pakistan and ...
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