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As India mourns the Pahalgam victims, pressure mounts for a strong response. The strategic and political fallout has only just begun.
Image Source: Getty
The massacre by Pakistan-linked terrorists of over two dozen Hindu tourists in the Pahalgam area of the Union Territory (UT) of Jammu and Kashmir (J&K) has plunged the region into a serious crisis, one that could lead to a military conflagration between India and Pakistan. The attack, as appalling and abhorrent as it was, should have been anticipated. Multiple tell-tale signs were hinting that the Pakistan Army-controlled hybrid regime in Pakistan was desperate to do something in Kashmir. The act was to not only pay back India for its alleged and entirely unsubstantiated involvement in the twin insurgencies in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan but also to raise the military’s stock by rallying people around it, something that is possible only in the event of confrontation with India. Another potential factor was that Pakistan felt terrorism had virtually ceased in J&K, and it was losing control over the situation.
Multiple tell-tale signs were hinting that the Pakistan Army-controlled hybrid regime in Pakistan was desperate to do something in Kashmir.
The timing of the attack fits a pattern. A major terror attack has accompanied every high-profile visit of an American dignitary. The United States (US) Vice President JD Vance’s visit with his family started making waves in India and globally. Alongside this, Prime Minister (PM) Modi was also travelling to Saudi Arabia for what was being described as a historic visit, which would result in breakthroughs. The aforementioned series of events converged into an ideal moment to attack Kashmir, bring it into the spotlight, and sabotage PM Modi’s visit to Saudi Arabia.
A few days before the massacre, Pakistan’s de facto ruler Army Chief General Asim Munir had berated the “Two-Nation” theory and called Kashmir the jugular vein of Pakistan which it can never give up, nor forget the Kashmiris fighting (most of the terrorists in J&K are Punjabi Muslims from Pakistan) against India, clearly indicating that he was going to ramp up support for the Pakistani Islamist Jihadist terror groups and their proxies operating in the UT. Propagandists of the Pakistan Army, including journalists like Najam Sethi, were openly warning on television news programmes that Kashmir was going to heat up. The carnage in Pahalgam, therefore, should not come as a surprise.
Pakistan’s response to this massacre is along expected lines and will only add fuel to the fire. Far from being ashamed or contrite about this massacre of civilians by their jihadists and proxies, Pakistan washed its hands of the incident and the Pakistan Army fielded its mouthpieces to try and deflect attention and muddy the waters. The Pakistani response is as per their standard playbook—issue a pro forma condemnation, unleash trolls and politicos to allege that it was a ‘false-flag’ attack, dare India to take any action warning of massive and disproportionate retaliation, and if they are in a generous mood, offer to cooperate and investigate provided India shares evidence.
The aforementioned series of events converged into an ideal moment to attack Kashmir, bring it into the spotlight, and sabotage PM Modi’s visit to Saudi Arabia.
The pressure will now rest on the Indian government to respond to this terror attack. That there will be a significant political, diplomatic, economic, and most importantly, a military fallout of this terror attack is a no-brainer. The first casualty will, of course, be the booming tourism in the Kashmir Valley, impacting the lives and livelihoods of thousands of Kashmiris who depend on tourism. But Pakistan does not care for the well-being of Kashmiris and will fight India to the last Kashmiri. There will also be the usual political noise and recriminations within India by the usual suspects— political Opposition parties more interested in blaming the government than in demanding action against the terrorists and their sponsoring country, and the Pakistan lobby in India, including multiple people ranging from former spooks to politicians to journalists and activists. However, this noise is unlikely to distract the government from what it must do.
The general public's expectation in India involves some kind of military action against terrorist bases and their backers in Pakistan. This is the ‘commitment trap’ that PM Narendra Modi faces after the Surgical Strikes in 2016 and the Balakot air strikes in 2019. If he does not take action, he will not only lose political support but also undermine the deterrence sought during the earlier strikes. Until and unless India is militarily prepared to climb up the escalation ladder and dominate it, the impact of any military action will be limited. There will be a loss of human life and damage to military, perhaps even civilian, assets. If India doesn’t climb up the escalation ladder by retaliating to Pakistan's response, it will mean that Pakistan has established deterrence, not India. This happened after India refused to respond to Pakistan's Operation Swift Retort in 2019.
The general public's expectation in India involves some kind of military action against terrorist bases and their backers in Pakistan.
While the Balakot strikes did convey to Pakistan that India was ready to up the ante, and held Pakistan's hand for a few years on export of terrorism, Pakistan did manage to establish that it would also retaliate, albeit only as a response and not to go up the escalation ladder. Back then, India should have realised that Pakistan desperately hoped India would not escalate after the tit-for-tat exchanges. The current speaker of Pakistan's National Assembly said at that time that the Pakistani establishment’s “legs were shaking and they were sweating profusely” over the possibility of escalation. Later, it transpired that the then Army Chief Qamar Bajwa had told journalists that Pakistan was not prepared for an escalation because its military wherewithal was degraded.
Nonetheless, the same question must be posed to India—Is it prepared to dominate the escalation ladder and continue the military actions until the enemy backs down? Once military action is taken, there would be no guarantee of how it will play out and for how long. Hence the question: does India have enough stockpiles of artillery, missiles, air munitions, and other equipment, or will India once again turn to countries like France and Israel for emergency purchases?? If missile salvos have to be fired, then the arsenal must have at least a few thousand, not a handful. Any action based on ‘the other side won’t escalate beyond a point’ is based on a heroic assumption that is utterly untenable and indefensible, not to mention dangerously delusional.
India can unsettle Pakistan and keep it guessing by making shows of forays across the border to ensure Pakistan doesn’t redeploy these troops to its western front, where two insurgencies are already raging.
Be that as it may, India’s options are that the ceasefire on the Line of Control (LoC) can be ended and areas inside Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (PoK) can be pulverised using artillery and rockets. Pakistan will undoubtedly retaliate, but does India have enough bunkers to secure the civilian population and the military personnel, or did it waste the four years of ceasefire basking in the sun? By heating the LoC and putting military pressure all along the international border, India can force Pakistan to divert and commit the bulk of its forces to its eastern front. India can unsettle Pakistan and keep it guessing by making shows of forays across the border to ensure Pakistan doesn’t redeploy these troops to its western front, where two insurgencies are already raging. This will put enormous pressure on the Pakistani forces. Chances are they will try to negotiate a deal with Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan, conceding to their demands to get some relief from the West. The implications for Pakistan's security will be extremely damaging. Alternatively, Pakistan will be caught in a two-front situation. Additionally, with Sindh heating up over Punjab and Pakistan Army’s plans to steal its waters, another front might open up, which can also be exploited by India. To keep Sindh calm, if the military has to back down from its self-enrichment plan to green the desert by desertifying Sindh, it will be a major setback to the Army’s prestige and power.
Apart from heating the border, India can target terrorist bases and perhaps Pakistan military establishments using artillery, air power or missiles. To be sure, Pakistan will respond. India needs to absorb these attacks and go up the escalation ladder. Another prong can be economic. India can unilaterally declare the abrogation of the Indus Waters Treaty. Again, there will be a pushback from the World Bank and other multilateral institutions. Pakistan could try to drag itself into international arbitration. Does India have the diplomatic clout to defy and defeat the forces arrayed against it? Will the Americans and Europeans stand with India or on the fence? How will China respond? Will India convey to China that it is ‘either with us or against us’ in this fight against Islamic terrorism? And if it is against India, will there be strategic and economic consequences for China? How far is India willing to go?
India can also devise a policy wherein any company that does any business in PoK will be blacklisted from doing any business with India.
Another prong yet to be utilised is economic. India is still exporting life-saving drugs to Pakistan. India can also devise a policy wherein any company that does any business in PoK will be blacklisted from doing any business with India. A similar approach can be taken in the domain of sports, in particular cricket. No player in the Pakistan cricket league will be allowed to play in the Indian Premier League (IPL). India will also push for ostracising Pakistan from international cricket and in other sports. Anyone hiring any Pakistani for a film or music production will be penalised.
The Pahalgam massacre is a tipping point. For too long, India has trapped itself in the business of ‘threshold of terrorism’—only when the threshold is crossed will India act against the terror sponsors, Pakistan. Worse, this threshold is not yet defined. Is the threshold crossed if five soldiers are killed? Or is it 10, 20, 50? What is the threshold for civilians being murdered by Pakistani terrorists? It is time for India to get over this threshold trap and establish an effective, ruthless, and fearsome deterrence.
Sushant Sareen is a Senior Fellow at the Observer Research Foundation.
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Sushant Sareen is Senior Fellow at Observer Research Foundation. His published works include: Balochistan: Forgotten War, Forsaken People (Monograph, 2017) Corridor Calculus: China-Pakistan Economic Corridor & China’s comprador ...
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